TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13001580
Played Aug 24Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1111113511111––
David Sarganek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 64 set 4, 1-11 — our read held David Sarganek at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 24–31 David Sarganek Petr Vicherek has won 24 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:29What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-31 in 55
Sarganek
Correct
gap of 7 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1686 vs Sarganek 1661
Vicherek
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 60% vs Sarganek 40%
Vicherek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 60% vs Sarganek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek +2 · Sarganek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sarganek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 1.91 / Sarganek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sarganek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13001580
Vicherek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 55 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back26% 18 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 36
Sarganek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 73 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it100% 38 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it86% 49 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVicherek1wins
AwaySarganek9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySarganek100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek2Sarganek8n = 10Sarganek took 8 of 10
S2Vicherek2Sarganek8n = 10Sarganek took 8 of 10
S3Vicherek4Sarganek6n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S4Vicherek0Sarganek4n = 4Sarganek took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricVicherekSarganekV − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match26.736.1−9.4per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 323 vs 244 / 46346.4%52.7%150 / 323 vs 244 / 463Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekVicherek 1.91/Sarganek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 20:45P. Vicherek—1111113D. Sarganek—8690
LAug 20 · 18:15P. Vicherek—117681D. Sarganek—41111113
LAug 18 · 19:45P. Vicherek—7910D. Sarganek—1111113
LAug 17 · 15:10P. Vicherek—6911101D. Sarganek—11117123
LJul 30 · 19:40P. Vicherek—41111722D. Sarganek—119811113
LJul 28 · 18:15P. Vicherek—9550D. Sarganek—1111113
LJul 22 · 21:08P. Vicherek—7670D. Sarganek—1111113
LJul 22 · 18:15P. Vicherek—691431D. Sarganek—111112113
LJul 15 · 18:10P. Vicherek—4980D. Sarganek—1111113
LJul 12 · 07:40P. Vicherek—9940D. Sarganek—1111113
P. Vicherek10
LSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113LSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590LSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642WAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170WAug 31 · 22:45P. Vicherek1.73118118113J. Gembala2.0041181192LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113
D. Sarganek10
WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860LSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991LAug 24 · 16:39M. Zaskodny1.9191111113D. Sarganek1.80119981LAug 24 · 16:10D. Sarganek1.737490M. Zaskodny2.001111113LAug 24 · 14:40R. Niezgoda1.6191111113D. Sarganek2.20119291WAug 23 · 13:24F. Sikora2.005950D. Sarganek1.731111113LAug 23 · 12:15D. Sarganek1.67117111262J. Rak2.10411714113LAug 23 · 10:45F. Sikora1.8311111110113D. Sarganek1.8356131242
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