TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12477505
Played Aug 23Finished
Filip Sikora
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11511611131012114
David Sarganek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Sikora to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Sikora above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 94 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Filip Sikora at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Filip Sikora 25–24 David Sarganek David Sarganek has won 24 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:21What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sarganek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-24 in 49
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikora 1736 vs Sarganek 1645
Sikora
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikora 80% vs Sarganek 40%
Sikora
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikora 70% vs Sarganek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikora +2 · Sarganek -3
Sarganek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sikora)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikora 1.83 / Sarganek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sikora)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12477505
Sikora1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Sarganek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSikora5wins
AwaySarganek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikora100%5 of 5
AwaySarganek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikora5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S2Sikora6Sarganek4n = 10Sikora took 6 of 10
S3Sikora4Sarganek6n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S4Sikora3Sarganek1n = 4Sikora took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSikoraSarganekSikora − SarganekBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.630.5+1.1per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikoraSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 288 vs 242 / 45955.6%52.7%160 / 288 vs 242 / 459Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikoraSikora 1.83/Sarganek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sikora · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sikora won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 16:10F. Sikora—5940D. Sarganek—1111113
WAug 5 · 14:10F. Sikora—11116113D. Sarganek—551181
WAug 2 · 05:45F. Sikora—1111113D. Sarganek—5580
LJul 25 · 07:40F. Sikora—711951D. Sarganek—11811113
WJul 16 · 16:39F. Sikora—11211113D. Sarganek—911571
LJul 16 · 14:40F. Sikora—51161182D. Sarganek—113115113
LJul 13 · 14:40F. Sikora—12880D. Sarganek—1411113
WJul 12 · 13:10F. Sikora—1111113D. Sarganek—8880
LJul 12 · 10:40F. Sikora—7980D. Sarganek—1111113
WJul 7 · 17:10F. Sikora—1111113D. Sarganek—5760
F. Sikora10
LSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191LSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991WSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880WSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590WSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WAug 25 · 17:23P. Vicherek1.658121621F. Sikora2.10111414113LAug 25 · 15:45F. Sikora1.9111651162P. Vicherek1.80611114113
D. Sarganek10
WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860LSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991LAug 24 · 16:39M. Zaskodny1.9191111113D. Sarganek1.80119981LAug 24 · 16:10D. Sarganek1.737490M. Zaskodny2.001111113LAug 24 · 14:40R. Niezgoda1.6191111113D. Sarganek2.20119291WAug 24 · 14:10P. Vicherek1.911111511D. Sarganek1.8011311113WAug 23 · 13:24F. Sikora2.005950D. Sarganek1.731111113LAug 23 · 12:15D. Sarganek1.67117111262J. Rak2.10411714113
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