TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071368
Played Sep 3Finished
Filip Sikora
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118118––––
Rostislav Niezgoda
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Sikora to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Sikora above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Filip Sikora at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Filip Sikora 33–29 Rostislav Niezgoda Rostislav Niezgoda has won 29 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sikora
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-29 in 62
Sikora
Correct
gap of 4 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikora 1797 vs Niezgoda 1781
Sikora
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikora 80% vs Niezgoda 60%
Sikora
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikora 80% vs Niezgoda 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikora +3 · Niezgoda -1
Sikora
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sikora) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikora form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikora 1.73 / Niezgoda 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Sikora)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13071368
Sikora1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 76 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it75% 56 of 75
Niezgoda2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 19 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back23% 6 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSikora7wins
AwayNiezgoda3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSikora leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikora75%6 of 8
AwayNiezgodan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikora8Niezgoda2n = 10Sikora took 8 of 10
S2Sikora8Niezgoda2n = 10Sikora took 8 of 10
S3Sikora5Niezgoda5n = 10split evenly
S4Sikora4Niezgoda2n = 6Sikora took 4 of 6
S5Sikora1Niezgoda2n = 3Niezgoda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSikoraNiezgodaS − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.032.6+6.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikoraNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 298 vs 289 / 49556.4%58.4%168 / 298 vs 289 / 495Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikoraSikora 1.73/Niezgoda 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Sikora · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sikora won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 11:45F. Sikora—11118113R. Niezgoda—641171
WAug 18 · 17:25F. Sikora—1111113R. Niezgoda—6690
LAug 18 · 14:45F. Sikora—121011952R. Niezgoda—1012811113
WAug 17 · 14:40F. Sikora—1111113R. Niezgoda—5970
LAug 12 · 19:40F. Sikora—1110871R. Niezgoda—91211113
WAug 7 · 21:05F. Sikora—1111113R. Niezgoda—9880
WAug 7 · 18:40F. Sikora—11135113R. Niezgoda—5111191
WAug 5 · 14:40F. Sikora—1111113R. Niezgoda—8780
WAug 2 · 09:19F. Sikora—911711113R. Niezgoda—11511342
LAug 2 · 07:15F. Sikora—121181132R. Niezgoda—143114113
F. Sikora10
LSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191LSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991WSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590WSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WAug 25 · 17:23P. Vicherek1.658121621F. Sikora2.10111414113LAug 25 · 15:45F. Sikora1.9111651162P. Vicherek1.80611114113WAug 25 · 14:45F. Sikora1.531111113J. Rak2.389760
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872
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