TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084472
Played Sep 6Finished
Jonas Rak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311118116––––
David Sarganek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJonas Rak above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 60 set 3, 11-6 — our read held David Sarganek at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Rak 8–7 David Sarganek David Sarganek has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sarganek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1690 vs Sarganek 1617
Rak
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 80% vs Sarganek 0%
Rak
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 60% vs Sarganek 30%
Rak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +2 · Sarganek -5
Sarganek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sarganek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 2.10 / Sarganek 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rak)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13084472
Rak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back36% 12 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Sarganek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 72 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it100% 38 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it86% 47 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak5wins
AwaySarganek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak50%2 of 4
AwaySarganek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak4Sarganek6n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S2Rak5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S3Rak5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S4Rak3Sarganek3n = 6split evenly
S5Rak3Sarganek2n = 5Rak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakSarganekR − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.937.8−0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 110 vs 245 / 46950.9%52.2%56 / 110 vs 245 / 469Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.935.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 2.10/Sarganek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 12:15J. Rak—411714113D. Sarganek—117111262
WAug 5 · 15:10J. Rak—611711113D. Sarganek—11811672
LAug 4 · 13:40J. Rak—101150D. Sarganek—1213113
WAug 1 · 07:15J. Rak—1011118113D. Sarganek—12521182
LJul 26 · 14:40J. Rak—6380D. Sarganek—1111113
WJul 16 · 16:10J. Rak—1111113D. Sarganek—9870
LJul 12 · 09:10J. Rak—56111162D. Sarganek—111137113
LJul 12 · 06:10J. Rak—15612292D. Sarganek—13111011113
LJul 7 · 15:40J. Rak—117681D. Sarganek—51111113
WJun 22 · 17:35J. Rak—1111123D. Sarganek—28100
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181LAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek1.90141177113J. Rak1.75129111182
D. Sarganek10
WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991LAug 24 · 16:39M. Zaskodny1.9191111113D. Sarganek1.80119981LAug 24 · 16:10D. Sarganek1.737490M. Zaskodny2.001111113LAug 24 · 14:40R. Niezgoda1.6191111113D. Sarganek2.20119291WAug 24 · 14:10P. Vicherek1.911111511D. Sarganek1.8011311113WAug 23 · 13:24F. Sikora2.005950D. Sarganek1.731111113LAug 23 · 12:15D. Sarganek1.67117111262J. Rak2.10411714113LAug 23 · 10:45F. Sikora1.8311111110113D. Sarganek1.8356131242
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.