TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017750
Played Aug 26Finished
Rostislav Niezgoda
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119114911119––
Rene Kowal
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:56 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 63.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 36–31 Rene Kowal Rene Kowal has won 31 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-31 in 67
Niezgoda
Correct
gap of 5 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1752 vs Kowal 1620
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 80% vs Kowal 40%
Niezgoda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 50% vs Kowal 30%
Niezgoda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda +2 · Kowal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Niezgoda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.53 / Kowal 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Niezgoda)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13017750
Niezgoda1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 159 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it95% 83 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it81% 113 of 140
Kowal2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
As underdog53% won 41 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNiezgoda6wins
AwayKowal4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgoda83.3%5 of 6
AwayKowal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda6Kowal4n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S2Niezgoda5Kowal5n = 10split evenly
S3Niezgoda7Kowal3n = 10Niezgoda took 7 of 10
S4Niezgoda4Kowal4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNiezgodaKowalN − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.034.4+2.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 488 vs 140 / 27658.2%50.7%284 / 488 vs 140 / 276Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.53/Kowal 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 10 · 21:10R. Niezgoda—41111113R. Kowal—112541
WAug 10 · 17:40R. Niezgoda—1111113R. Kowal—6780
WAug 6 · 20:48R. Niezgoda—1111113R. Kowal—7780
LAug 6 · 19:40R. Niezgoda—114771R. Kowal—41111113
WAug 4 · 14:10R. Niezgoda—11139113R. Kowal—8111181
LJul 31 · 17:08R. Niezgoda—571181R. Kowal—11117113
LJul 31 · 15:40R. Niezgoda—117111152R. Kowal—131126113
WJul 21 · 18:40R. Niezgoda—11814113R. Kowal—7111261
LJul 13 · 15:10R. Niezgoda—861171R. Kowal—11118113
WJun 30 · 19:15R. Niezgoda—111145113R. Kowal—67111192
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252
R. Kowal10
WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113WAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292LAug 10 · 21:10R. Niezgoda1.5341111113R. Kowal2.38112541WAug 10 · 20:10A. Baros2.10841151R. Kowal1.6711115113WAug 10 · 19:10R. Kowal1.67961111113P. Vicherek2.1011116922
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