TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12396502
Played Aug 10Finished
Rene Kowal
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911611116119112
Petr Vicherek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingRene Kowal above · Petr Vicherek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 87 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Rene Kowal 22–17 Petr Vicherek Petr Vicherek has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:07What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kowal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-17 in 39
Kowal
Correct
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowal 1640 vs Vicherek 1671
Vicherek
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowal 20% vs Vicherek 40%
Vicherek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowal 20% vs Vicherek 70%
Vicherek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowal -2 · Vicherek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vicherek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowal 1.67 / Vicherek 2.10
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vicherek)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12396502
Kowal1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest11%takes the first set · 1 of 9
As favourite54% won 46 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Vicherek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As underdog44% won 51 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowal6wins
AwayVicherek4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKowal leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowal80%4 of 5
AwayVicherek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowal5Vicherek4n = 9Kowal took 5 of 9
S2Kowal6Vicherek3n = 9Kowal took 6 of 9
S3Kowal5Vicherek4n = 9Kowal took 5 of 9
S4Kowal3Vicherek4n = 7Vicherek took 4 of 7
S5Kowal3Vicherek1n = 4Kowal took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalVicherekK − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match40.235.8+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalVicherekBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 269 vs 135 / 29650.9%45.6%137 / 269 vs 135 / 296Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VicherekKowal 1.67/Vicherek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.2%
Vicherek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 22 · 19:45R. Kowal—691181P. Vicherek—11118113
LJul 15 · 19:40R. Kowal—7117111P. Vicherek—11411133
WJul 9 · 21:10R. Kowal—1111113P. Vicherek—7860
WJul 9 · 19:10R. Kowal—11911113P. Vicherek—811431
LJun 16 · 18:10R. Kowal—11881172P. Vicherek—811114113
WJun 10 · 18:10R. Kowal—1111113P. Vicherek—6470
WJun 8 · 19:40R. Kowal—111174113P. Vicherek—85111182
WJun 2 · 19:40R. Kowal—1013411113P. Vicherek—121111992
WMay 28 · 17:40R. Kowal—411119113P. Vicherek—11861122
R. Kowal10
WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113WAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38941191LAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292LAug 10 · 21:10R. Niezgoda1.5341111113R. Kowal2.38112541WAug 10 · 20:10A. Baros2.10841151R. Kowal1.6711115113
P. Vicherek10
LSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113LSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590LSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642WAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170WAug 31 · 22:45P. Vicherek1.73118118113J. Gembala2.0041181192LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113
Upcoming Matches
R. Kowal
Nothing scheduled
P. Vicherek
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