TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12467308
Played Aug 20Finished
Rostislav Niezgoda
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119211711611––
Antonin Baros
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Antonin Baros below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 68 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 58.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 47–21 Antonin Baros Antonin Baros has won 21 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Niezgoda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-21 in 68
Niezgoda
Wrong
gap of 26 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1738 vs Baros 1631
Niezgoda
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 60% vs Baros 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 40% vs Baros 60%
Baros
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda -1 · Baros +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.53 / Baros 2.38
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Niezgoda)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12467308
Niezgoda1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 155 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it95% 81 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it82% 110 of 135
Baros2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNiezgoda8wins
AwayBaros2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgoda85.7%6 of 7
AwayBaros33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda7Baros3n = 10Niezgoda took 7 of 10
S2Niezgoda9Baros1n = 10Niezgoda took 9 of 10
S3Niezgoda4Baros6n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S4Niezgoda4Baros4n = 8split evenly
S5Niezgoda3Baros1n = 4Niezgoda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNiezgodaBarosN − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.235.9+3.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 475 vs 173 / 37358.1%46.4%276 / 475 vs 173 / 373Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.53/Baros 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.8%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 17:45R. Niezgoda—511811113A. Baros—11911442
WAug 13 · 21:05R. Niezgoda—1111113A. Baros—6780
LAug 13 · 17:40R. Niezgoda—81111932A. Baros—118311113
WAug 10 · 18:40R. Niezgoda—3111110113A. Baros—11591222
LJul 21 · 20:10R. Niezgoda—114561A. Baros—81111113
WJul 18 · 17:45R. Niezgoda—11119113A. Baros—691161
WJun 27 · 17:40R. Niezgoda—1111113A. Baros—6790
WJun 26 · 17:40R. Niezgoda—111232113A. Baros—910111192
WJun 23 · 18:40R. Niezgoda—111110113A. Baros—881231
WJun 19 · 18:10R. Niezgoda—11137113A. Baros—9111191
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252
A. Baros10
WAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872WAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113LAug 26 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.611111133A. Baros2.2069110LAug 26 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.4411411113A. Baros2.63811861WAug 26 · 19:15A. Vitasek1.8011712101A. Baros1.9181114123WAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292WAug 20 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.4067120A. Baros2.751111143WAug 20 · 19:15A. Baros2.2511118113P. Vicherek1.57961171
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