TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13023142
Played Aug 26Finished
Rostislav Niezgoda
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161191311––––
Antonin Baros
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Antonin Baros below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 61 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 58.2%
61 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 48–22 Antonin Baros Antonin Baros has won 22 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-22 in 70
Niezgoda
Correct
gap of 26 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1752 vs Baros 1649
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 80% vs Baros 100%
Baros
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 60% vs Baros 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda +3 · Baros +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.61 / Baros 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Niezgoda)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13023142
Niezgoda1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 159 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it95% 83 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it81% 113 of 140
Baros2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNiezgoda7wins
AwayBaros3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgoda71.4%5 of 7
AwayBaros33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda7Baros3n = 10Niezgoda took 7 of 10
S2Niezgoda7Baros3n = 10Niezgoda took 7 of 10
S3Niezgoda5Baros5n = 10split evenly
S4Niezgoda3Baros5n = 8Baros took 5 of 8
S5Niezgoda3Baros1n = 4Niezgoda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNiezgodaBarosN − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.036.3+0.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 487 vs 176 / 37758.1%46.7%283 / 487 vs 176 / 377Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.61/Baros 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 19:45R. Niezgoda—11411113A. Baros—811861
LAug 20 · 21:15R. Niezgoda—112761A. Baros—91111113
WAug 20 · 17:45R. Niezgoda—511811113A. Baros—11911442
WAug 13 · 21:05R. Niezgoda—1111113A. Baros—6780
LAug 13 · 17:40R. Niezgoda—81111932A. Baros—118311113
WAug 10 · 18:40R. Niezgoda—3111110113A. Baros—11591222
LJul 21 · 20:10R. Niezgoda—114561A. Baros—81111113
WJul 18 · 17:45R. Niezgoda—11119113A. Baros—691161
WJun 27 · 17:40R. Niezgoda—1111113A. Baros—6790
WJun 26 · 17:40R. Niezgoda—111232113A. Baros—910111192
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252
A. Baros10
WAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872WAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113LAug 26 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.4411411113A. Baros2.63811861WAug 26 · 19:15A. Vitasek1.8011712101A. Baros1.9181114123WAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292WAug 20 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.53112761A. Baros2.3891111113WAug 20 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.4067120A. Baros2.751111143WAug 20 · 19:15A. Baros2.2511118113P. Vicherek1.57961171
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