TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13012829
Played Aug 25Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119411115711119
Petr Vicherek
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:57 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Petr Vicherek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 55.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 2–1 Petr Vicherek Petr Vicherek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:57What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vicherek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1796 vs Vicherek 1702
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Vicherek 60%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 70% vs Vicherek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -1 · Vicherek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.20 / Vicherek 1.61
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)+11.7pp
TT Cup · #13012829
Moravec2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 47 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back34% 19 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Vicherek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite52% won 45 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 31 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMoravec2wins
AwayVicherek1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderMoravec leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec1Vicherek2n = 3Vicherek took 2 of 3
S2Moravec1Vicherek2n = 3Vicherek took 2 of 3
S3Moravec2Vicherek1n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMoravecVicherekM − VBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.341.7−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecVicherekBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 432 vs 154 / 33057.4%46.7%248 / 432 vs 154 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 2.20/Vicherek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 25 · 15:15B. Moravec—114117113P. Vicherek—91151192
WMay 16 · 08:45B. Moravec—511116113P. Vicherek—11991172
LMay 16 · 08:15B. Moravec—8280P. Vicherek—1111113
B. Moravec10
WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec1.44831112113F. Chaloupka2.63111181032WAug 30 · 06:40B. Moravec1.44111111113J. Skvrna2.63139431WAug 30 · 05:40B. Moravec1.50117119113J. Skalicky2.5051121172LAug 25 · 16:55J. Rak—116113113B. Moravec—61141182LAug 25 · 16:15J. Rak1.8311119113B. Moravec1.83691171
P. Vicherek10
LSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113LSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590LSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642WAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170WAug 31 · 22:45P. Vicherek1.73118118113J. Gembala2.0041181192LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113
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