TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095332
Played Sep 8Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511711118911––
Jan Gembala
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:47 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Jan Gembala below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Gembala at 55.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 2–2 Jan Gembala Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:47What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gembala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1686 vs Gembala 1723
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 100% vs Gembala 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 80% vs Gembala 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +5 · Gembala +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Gembala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 2.10 / Gembala 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Gembala)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13095332
Macurak2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 69 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Gembala1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite56% won 86 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it78% 67 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMacurak2wins
AwayGembala2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGembala66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak1Gembala3n = 4Gembala took 3 of 4
S2Macurak2Gembala2n = 4split evenly
S3Macurak3Gembala1n = 4Macurak took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMacurakGembalaM − GBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match34.536.2−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakGembalaBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 463 vs 202 / 36950.8%54.7%235 / 463 vs 202 / 369Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaMacurak 2.10/Gembala 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak—571191J. Gembala—11118113
WAug 23 · 18:40M. Macurak—912114113J. Gembala—111041162
LAug 18 · 11:40M. Macurak—7770J. Gembala—1111113
WMar 29 · 19:15M. Macurak—1211153J. Gembala—106130
M. Macurak10
WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113
J. Gembala10
WSep 8 · 07:10D. Jr2.63714991J. Gembala1.44111211113WSep 8 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831211113T. Krenek1.8310670WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113
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