TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095127
Played Sep 8Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191171210––––
Tomas Krenek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 60 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 12–12 Tomas Krenek Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:51What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1697 vs Krenek 1668
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 100% vs Krenek 60%
Macurak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 70% vs Krenek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +5 · Krenek -1
Macurak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krenek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Macurak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.91 / Krenek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krenek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13095127
Macurak1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 69 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Krenek1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite54% won 127 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it90% 52 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it73% 85 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak3wins
AwayKrenek7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak50%2 of 4
AwayKrenek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Macurak6Krenek4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S3Macurak5Krenek5n = 10split evenly
S4Macurak3Krenek5n = 8Krenek took 5 of 8
S5Macurak1Krenek4n = 5Krenek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakKrenekM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.041.6−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 462 vs 450 / 89050.9%50.6%235 / 462 vs 450 / 890Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekMacurak 1.91/Krenek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak—1111123T. Krenek—97100
LAug 24 · 11:10M. Macurak—11112902T. Krenek—991111113
LAug 19 · 11:45M. Macurak—12114462T. Krenek—1051111113
LAug 18 · 10:10M. Macurak—1212891T. Krenek—141011113
LAug 7 · 05:40M. Macurak—98111162T. Krenek—111163113
WJul 2 · 10:15M. Macurak—118119143T. Krenek—711611122
LJul 2 · 09:15M. Macurak—91141142T. Krenek—115117113
WJul 2 · 07:45M. Macurak—81112113T. Krenek—1171041
LJun 28 · 15:40M. Macurak—2611101T. Krenek—11119123
LApr 1 · 06:40M. Macurak—91260T. Krenek—1114113
M. Macurak10
WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113LSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112
T. Krenek10
LSep 8 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831211113T. Krenek1.8310670WSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 11:15E. Precek2.10571112113T. Krenek1.67111181092WSep 6 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111118163L. Slavik2.00481111142WSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113LSep 6 · 07:45T. Krenek1.7311510111L. Slavik2.0071112133WSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112WSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102WSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113
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