TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13092648
Played Sep 7Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8117111012––––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 59 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 21–23 Dalibor Velky Jr Radek Benes has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Benes beat Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:37What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-23 in 44
Jr
Correct
gap of 2 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1615 vs Jr 1575
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Jr 20%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 40% vs Jr 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +1 · Jr -4
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.80 / Jr 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13092648
Benes1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 186 of 334
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 123 of 167
Jr1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog51% won 120 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back30% 35 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayJr5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenesn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJr62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S2Benes3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Benes7Jr3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes4Jr4n = 8split evenly
S5Benes3Jr1n = 4Benes took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesJrB − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.941.9−2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesJrBasisWin rate · lifetime483 / 925 vs 257 / 51152.2%50.3%483 / 925 vs 257 / 511Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.80/Jr 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes—87100D. Jr—1111123
WSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes—11611113D. Jr—711681
LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes—661141D. Jr—11119113
LSep 2 · 08:45R. Benes—7790D. Jr—1111113
LSep 2 · 06:15R. Benes—51181182D. Jr—117118113
WAug 31 · 09:10R. Benes—911119113D. Jr—11571162
WAug 31 · 06:10R. Benes—9131111113D. Jr—11159592
WAug 29 · 17:30R. Benes—161112123D. Jr—18710101
LAug 29 · 13:45R. Benes—891191D. Jr—11118113
WAug 13 · 13:20R. Benes—122167113D. Jr—1011141192
R. Benes10
WSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl1.911111113R. Benes1.808950LSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 12:15R. Benes1.8391112113B. Mrowetz1.831161081WSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.91871191R. Benes1.8011116113
D. Jr10
LSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 11:10D. Jr1.7310830B. Mrowetz2.001211113LSep 7 · 09:40T. Kindl2.1012713113D. Jr1.6710111191LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102LSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123WSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980WSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113
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