TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089613
Played Sep 7Finished
Tomas Kindl
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119115––––
Radek Benes
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingTomas Kindl above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kindl 12–12 Radek Benes Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:42What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kindl 1555 vs Benes 1628
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kindl 80% vs Benes 20%
Kindl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kindl 80% vs Benes 30%
Kindl
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kindl +3 · Benes -2
Kindl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKindl 1.91 / Benes 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13089613
Kindl1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 53 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Benes1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 186 of 334
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 123 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKindl4wins
AwayBenes6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKindl40%2 of 5
AwayBenes60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kindl5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S2Kindl4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S3Kindl5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Kindl6Benes4n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S5Kindl2Benes4n = 6Benes took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKindlBenesK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.846.7−0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKindlBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 399 vs 482 / 92250.6%52.3%202 / 399 vs 482 / 922Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKindl 1.91/Benes 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kindl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 08:44T. Kindl—111196113R. Benes—93111162
LAug 5 · 06:10T. Kindl—14106101R. Benes—121211123
WAug 3 · 10:45T. Kindl—101111143R. Benes—1297121
LAug 1 · 13:40T. Kindl—912111072R. Benes—1110812113
LJul 20 · 09:08T. Kindl—711111192R. Benes—111399113
LJul 20 · 06:10T. Kindl—731191R. Benes—11117113
WJul 9 · 05:45T. Kindl—151111113R. Benes—176691
LJun 29 · 12:10T. Kindl—11581182R. Benes—811118113
LMay 21 · 08:10T. Kindl—1110911112R. Benes—912117133
WMay 5 · 08:45T. Kindl—124913153R. Benes—10111111132
T. Kindl10
WSep 7 · 09:40T. Kindl2.1012713113D. Jr1.6710111191WSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882LSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113WSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592LSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 06:15L. Lasota2.101011781T. Kindl1.6712711113WSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991
R. Benes10
LSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 12:15R. Benes1.8391112113B. Mrowetz1.831161081WSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.91871191R. Benes1.8011116113LSep 2 · 10:15T. Krenek1.9112811133R. Benes1.8010119111LSep 2 · 08:45D. Jr1.831111113R. Benes1.837790
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