TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13062682
Played Sep 2Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12108111191311––
Radek Benes
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:48 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 85 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Radek Benes at 60.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 64–68 Radek Benes Tomas Krenek has won 64 of their 132 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 05:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-68 in 132
Benes
Wrong
gap of 4 in 132, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1589 vs Benes 1701
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 60% vs Benes 40%
Krenek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 40% vs Benes 70%
Benes
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -1 · Benes -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.91 / Benes 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13062682
Krenek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 129 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back43% 58 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back17% 8 of 48
Benes1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 186 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it95% 75 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it73% 122 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek4wins
AwayBenes6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBenes62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek2Benes8n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S2Krenek6Benes4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Krenek4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Krenek5Benes4n = 9Krenek took 5 of 9
S5Krenek3Benes3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekBenesK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match44.345.9−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime439 / 872 vs 479 / 91350.3%52.5%439 / 872 vs 479 / 913Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKrenek 1.91/Benes 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 07:45T. Krenek—811117113R. Benes—11791182
LAug 31 · 09:40T. Krenek—1011981R. Benes—12911113
LAug 31 · 07:40T. Krenek—99140R. Benes—1111163
LAug 25 · 10:10T. Krenek—412101192R. Benes—1110126113
LAug 25 · 06:40T. Krenek—111181152R. Benes—913116113
WAug 10 · 13:20T. Krenek—911611113R. Benes—11811792
WAug 10 · 11:10T. Krenek—121111143R. Benes—10137121
LAug 10 · 07:40T. Krenek—151191192R. Benes—177116113
WAug 6 · 10:10T. Krenek—7121110143R. Benes—1110912122
LAug 6 · 06:40T. Krenek—581141R. Benes—11115113
T. Krenek10
WSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 11:15E. Precek2.10571112113T. Krenek1.67111181092WSep 6 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111118163L. Slavik2.00481111142WSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113LSep 6 · 07:45T. Krenek1.7311510111L. Slavik2.0071112133WSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112WSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102WSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113LSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123
R. Benes10
LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 12:15R. Benes1.8391112113B. Mrowetz1.831161081WSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.91871191R. Benes1.8011116113LSep 2 · 08:45D. Jr1.831111113R. Benes1.837790LSep 2 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73811117113R. Benes2.0011791182WSep 2 · 07:15D. Pawlik2.109116141R. Benes1.6711311163
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