TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067651
Played Sep 3Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611611119411––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 20–22 Dalibor Velky Jr Radek Benes has won 20 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:29What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-22 in 42
Jr
Correct
gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1641 vs Jr 1611
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 50% vs Jr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.83 / Jr 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13067651
Benes1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Jr1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayJr5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenesn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayJr55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes1Jr9n = 10Jr took 9 of 10
S2Benes4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Benes7Jr3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes5Jr4n = 9Benes took 5 of 9
S5Benes4Jr2n = 6Benes took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesJrB − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match43.145.1−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesJrBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 921 vs 254 / 50352.3%50.5%482 / 921 vs 254 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.83/Jr 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes—661141D. Jr—11119113
LSep 2 · 08:45R. Benes—7790D. Jr—1111113
LSep 2 · 06:15R. Benes—51181182D. Jr—117118113
WAug 31 · 09:10R. Benes—911119113D. Jr—11571162
WAug 31 · 06:10R. Benes—9131111113D. Jr—11159592
WAug 29 · 17:30R. Benes—161112123D. Jr—18710101
LAug 29 · 13:45R. Benes—891191D. Jr—11118113
WAug 13 · 13:20R. Benes—122167113D. Jr—1011141192
LAug 13 · 10:15R. Benes—68111182D. Jr—111159113
WAug 13 · 06:45R. Benes—1111811113D. Jr—13911992
R. Benes10
LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 12:15R. Benes1.8391112113B. Mrowetz1.831161081WSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.91871191R. Benes1.8011116113LSep 2 · 10:15T. Krenek1.9112811133R. Benes1.8010119111LSep 2 · 08:45D. Jr1.831111113R. Benes1.837790LSep 2 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73811117113R. Benes2.0011791182WSep 2 · 07:15D. Pawlik2.109116141R. Benes1.6711311163
D. Jr10
LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102LSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123WSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.801111113D. Jr1.918890LSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.5711116113D. Jr2.25851181WSep 4 · 08:40J. Skvrna1.5776100D. Jr2.251111123WSep 2 · 08:45D. Jr1.831111113R. Benes1.837790
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