TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13062763
Played Sep 2Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111161210118––
Bruno Mrowetz
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:18 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Bruno Mrowetz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Radek Benes at 60.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 18–9 Bruno Mrowetz Bruno Mrowetz has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mrowetz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-9 in 27
Benes
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1688 vs Mrowetz 1603
Benes
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Mrowetz 80%
Mrowetz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 60% vs Mrowetz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +1 · Mrowetz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.83 / Mrowetz 1.83
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Benes)+4.7pp
TT Cup · #13062763
Benes1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Mrowetz1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes6wins
AwayMrowetz4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%3 of 3
AwayMrowetz57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Mrowetz7n = 10Mrowetz took 7 of 10
S2Benes5Mrowetz5n = 10split evenly
S3Benes2Mrowetz8n = 10Mrowetz took 8 of 10
S4Benes6Mrowetz0n = 6Benes took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesMrowetzB − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.337.1−1.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 915 vs 226 / 45852.5%49.3%480 / 915 vs 226 / 458Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.83/Mrowetz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 3 · 15:45R. Benes—111390B. Mrowetz—1315113
WJul 27 · 12:10R. Benes—511911133B. Mrowetz—118118112
LJul 22 · 12:10R. Benes—5970B. Mrowetz—1111113
WJul 22 · 08:39R. Benes—11118113B. Mrowetz—991191
LJul 22 · 08:10R. Benes—6680B. Mrowetz—1111113
WJun 29 · 10:10R. Benes—11712113B. Mrowetz—8111061
WJun 29 · 08:10R. Benes—11116113B. Mrowetz—891141
LJun 22 · 10:15R. Benes—6790B. Mrowetz—1111113
WJun 22 · 09:10R. Benes—711811113B. Mrowetz—11511692
WJun 22 · 07:40R. Benes—51112113B. Mrowetz—1171091
R. Benes10
LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.91871191R. Benes1.8011116113LSep 2 · 10:15T. Krenek1.9112811133R. Benes1.8010119111LSep 2 · 08:45D. Jr1.831111113R. Benes1.837790LSep 2 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73811117113R. Benes2.0011791182WSep 2 · 07:15D. Pawlik2.109116141R. Benes1.6711311163
B. Mrowetz10
LSep 7 · 09:10L. Lasota2.251113113B. Mrowetz1.5581190LSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113WSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860
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