TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067816
Played Sep 3Finished
Bruno Mrowetz
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118116––––
Radek Benes
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 10–20 Radek Benes Bruno Mrowetz has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:09What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mrowetz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-20 in 30
Benes
Wrong
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1616 vs Benes 1658
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 60% vs Benes 40%
Mrowetz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 70% vs Benes 40%
Mrowetz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz +2 · Benes -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.80 / Benes 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13067816
Mrowetz1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 70 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it79% 52 of 66
Benes1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 83 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz4wins
AwayBenes6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz66.7%4 of 6
AwayBenes100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz6Benes4n = 10Mrowetz took 6 of 10
S2Mrowetz5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S3Mrowetz8Benes2n = 10Mrowetz took 8 of 10
S4Mrowetz0Benes6n = 6Benes took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzBenesM − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.736.5+1.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 461 vs 481 / 91849.5%52.4%228 / 461 vs 481 / 918Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesMrowetz 1.80/Benes 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mrowetz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 12:15B. Mrowetz—1161081R. Benes—91112113
WAug 25 · 12:10B. Mrowetz—1711113R. Benes—15960
LAug 10 · 11:40B. Mrowetz—121111101R. Benes—14139123
WAug 3 · 15:45B. Mrowetz—1315113R. Benes—111390
LJul 27 · 12:10B. Mrowetz—118118112R. Benes—511911133
WJul 22 · 12:10B. Mrowetz—1111113R. Benes—5970
LJul 22 · 08:39B. Mrowetz—991191R. Benes—11118113
WJul 22 · 08:10B. Mrowetz—1111113R. Benes—6680
LJun 29 · 10:10B. Mrowetz—8111061R. Benes—11712113
LJun 29 · 08:10B. Mrowetz—891141R. Benes—11116113
B. Mrowetz10
LSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113WSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 11:40J. Krupnik1.83116641B. Mrowetz1.8391111113WSep 3 · 11:10L. Kantor2.25651181B. Mrowetz1.5711117113
R. Benes10
LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 12:15R. Benes1.8391112113B. Mrowetz1.831161081WSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.91871191R. Benes1.8011116113LSep 2 · 10:15T. Krenek1.9112811133R. Benes1.8010119111LSep 2 · 08:45D. Jr1.831111113R. Benes1.837790LSep 2 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73811117113R. Benes2.0011791182WSep 2 · 07:15D. Pawlik2.109116141R. Benes1.6711311163
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