TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061644
Played Sep 2Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111136111416––
Radek Benes
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:15 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 14-16
Point 81 set 4, 14-16 — our read held Radek Benes at 58.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 8–10 Radek Benes Dominik Pawlik has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Benes
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1538 vs Benes 1641
Benes
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 40% vs Benes 90%
Benes
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +1 · Benes -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 2.10 / Benes 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Benes)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13061644
Pawlik2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 56 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Benes1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 186 of 334
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 123 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayBenes5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik100%3 of 3
AwayBenes71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S2Pawlik7Benes3n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S3Pawlik6Benes4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S4Pawlik3Benes5n = 8Benes took 5 of 8
S5Pawlik2Benes2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikBenesP − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match44.942.4+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 439 vs 482 / 92150.1%52.3%220 / 439 vs 482 / 921Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesPawlik 2.10/Benes 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 07:15D. Pawlik—9116141R. Benes—11311163
LAug 25 · 08:38D. Pawlik—71190R. Benes—1113113
WAug 25 · 08:10D. Pawlik—1111123R. Benes—99100
WAug 23 · 13:40D. Pawlik—1111117113R. Benes—82131182
WAug 10 · 09:08D. Pawlik—91111113R. Benes—118881
LAug 10 · 05:40D. Pawlik—7911131R. Benes—11115153
WJul 27 · 06:40D. Pawlik—141111113R. Benes—167871
WJul 23 · 07:15D. Pawlik—13111510123R. Benes—1171712102
LMay 27 · 10:40D. Pawlik—81114992R. Benes—1161211113
LApr 17 · 11:40D. Pawlik—1291411102R. Benes—1411126123
D. Pawlik10
WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113
R. Benes10
LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 12:15R. Benes1.8391112113B. Mrowetz1.831161081WSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.91871191R. Benes1.8011116113LSep 2 · 10:15T. Krenek1.9112811133R. Benes1.8010119111LSep 2 · 08:45D. Jr1.831111113R. Benes1.837790LSep 2 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73811117113R. Benes2.0011791182
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R. Benes
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