TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061645
Played Sep 2Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117119711118
Radek Benes
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 94 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 63–68 Radek Benes Tomas Krenek has won 63 of their 131 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:14What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
63-68 in 131
Benes
Wrong
gap of 5 in 131, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1600 vs Benes 1732
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 40% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 30% vs Benes 90%
Benes
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek +1 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krenek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.73 / Benes 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krenek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13061645
Krenek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 120 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it91% 48 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it75% 80 of 107
Benes2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 85 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek4wins
AwayBenes6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBenes62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek2Benes8n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S2Krenek6Benes4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Krenek4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Krenek6Benes3n = 9Krenek took 6 of 9
S5Krenek2Benes3n = 5Benes took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekBenesK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match43.845.2−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 870 vs 479 / 91150.3%52.6%438 / 870 vs 479 / 911Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKrenek 1.73/Benes 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 09:40T. Krenek—1011981R. Benes—12911113
LAug 31 · 07:40T. Krenek—99140R. Benes—1111163
LAug 25 · 10:10T. Krenek—412101192R. Benes—1110126113
LAug 25 · 06:40T. Krenek—111181152R. Benes—913116113
WAug 10 · 13:20T. Krenek—911611113R. Benes—11811792
WAug 10 · 11:10T. Krenek—121111143R. Benes—10137121
LAug 10 · 07:40T. Krenek—151191192R. Benes—177116113
WAug 6 · 10:10T. Krenek—7121110143R. Benes—1110912122
LAug 6 · 06:40T. Krenek—581141R. Benes—11115113
WJul 20 · 10:40T. Krenek—71311123R. Benes—11117101
T. Krenek10
WSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 11:15E. Precek2.10571112113T. Krenek1.67111181092WSep 6 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111118163L. Slavik2.00481111142WSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113LSep 6 · 07:45T. Krenek1.7311510111L. Slavik2.0071112133WSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112WSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102WSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113LSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123
R. Benes10
LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 12:15R. Benes1.8391112113B. Mrowetz1.831161081WSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.91871191R. Benes1.8011116113LSep 2 · 10:15T. Krenek1.9112811133R. Benes1.8010119111LSep 2 · 08:45D. Jr1.831111113R. Benes1.837790WSep 2 · 07:15D. Pawlik2.109116141R. Benes1.6711311163
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