TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089638
Played Sep 7Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117611116118––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 20–22 Dalibor Velky Jr Radek Benes has won 20 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:50What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-22 in 42
Jr
Wrong
gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1611 vs Jr 1579
Benes
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 20% vs Jr 40%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 30% vs Jr 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -3 · Jr -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.91 / Jr 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13089638
Benes1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 81 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back28% 27 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Jr1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 86 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it87% 40 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it67% 63 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayJr5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenesn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayJr55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes1Jr9n = 10Jr took 9 of 10
S2Benes4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Benes7Jr3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes5Jr4n = 9Benes took 5 of 9
S5Benes4Jr2n = 6Benes took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesJrB − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match43.145.1−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesJrBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 923 vs 256 / 50952.2%50.3%482 / 923 vs 256 / 509Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.91/Jr 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes—661141D. Jr—11119113
LSep 2 · 08:45R. Benes—7790D. Jr—1111113
LSep 2 · 06:15R. Benes—51181182D. Jr—117118113
WAug 31 · 09:10R. Benes—911119113D. Jr—11571162
WAug 31 · 06:10R. Benes—9131111113D. Jr—11159592
WAug 29 · 17:30R. Benes—161112123D. Jr—18710101
LAug 29 · 13:45R. Benes—891191D. Jr—11118113
WAug 13 · 13:20R. Benes—122167113D. Jr—1011141192
LAug 13 · 10:15R. Benes—68111182D. Jr—111159113
WAug 13 · 06:45R. Benes—1111811113D. Jr—13911992
R. Benes10
LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123LSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl1.911111113R. Benes1.808950LSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 12:15R. Benes1.8391112113B. Mrowetz1.831161081WSep 2 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.91871191R. Benes1.8011116113
D. Jr10
WSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123LSep 7 · 11:10D. Jr1.7310830B. Mrowetz2.001211113LSep 7 · 09:40T. Kindl2.1012713113D. Jr1.6710111191LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102LSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123WSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980WSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113
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