TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095327
Played Sep 8Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118119––––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 61 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 59.3%
61 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 24–15 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 15 of their 39 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Krenek beat Jr 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-15 in 39
Krenek
Correct
gap of 9 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1663 vs Jr 1563
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 50% vs Jr 30%
Krenek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek +1 · Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Krenek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krenek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.61 / Jr 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Krenek)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13095327
Krenek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 127 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it90% 52 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it73% 85 of 116
Jr2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 121 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back30% 35 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek6wins
AwayJr4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek71.4%5 of 7
AwayJr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek7Jr3n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S2Krenek6Jr4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Krenek6Jr4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S4Krenek2Jr5n = 7Jr took 5 of 7
S5Krenek2Jr1n = 3Krenek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekJrK − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.239.1+1.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekJrBasisWin rate · lifetime451 / 892 vs 258 / 51550.6%50.1%451 / 892 vs 258 / 515Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.61/Jr 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 08:38T. Krenek—1117143D. Jr—815120
LSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek—316671D. Jr—111411113
WSep 6 · 09:20T. Krenek—1111113D. Jr—7590
WSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek—1111811123D. Jr—951113102
WSep 3 · 06:45T. Krenek—149118113D. Jr—121151152
WSep 2 · 06:45T. Krenek—61411113D. Jr—1112881
LAug 31 · 06:40T. Krenek—116961D. Jr—91111113
WAug 21 · 13:14T. Krenek—1211113D. Jr—10590
LAug 21 · 12:15T. Krenek—115491D. Jr—81111113
LAug 7 · 10:10T. Krenek—1012111182D. Jr—121485113
T. Krenek10
LSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102WSep 8 · 11:10T. Kindl1.831291191T. Krenek1.83101113113WSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143LSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113LSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100LSep 8 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831211113T. Krenek1.8310670WSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 11:15E. Precek2.10571112113T. Krenek1.67111181092WSep 6 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111118163L. Slavik2.00481111142
D. Jr10
LSep 8 · 12:10D. Jr2.254990T. Kindl1.571111113LSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143WSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113LSep 8 · 07:10D. Jr2.63714991J. Gembala1.44111211113LSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123LSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 11:10D. Jr1.7310830B. Mrowetz2.001211113LSep 7 · 09:40T. Kindl2.1012713113D. Jr1.6710111191
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