TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095326
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11871110121191210
Tomas Krenek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 101 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 42–33 Tomas Krenek Tomas Krenek has won 33 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-33 in 75
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 9 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1641 vs Krenek 1669
Krenek
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 20% vs Krenek 60%
Krenek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 50% vs Krenek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +1 · Krenek +3
Krenek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.73 / Krenek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Skvrna)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13095326
Skvrna1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 226 of 385
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it74% 159 of 215
Krenek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 125 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back44% 55 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back16% 7 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna6wins
AwayKrenek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna75%6 of 8
AwayKrenekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna8Krenek2n = 10Skvrna took 8 of 10
S2Skvrna4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna3Krenek7n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S4Skvrna4Krenek3n = 7Skvrna took 4 of 7
S5Skvrna3Krenek1n = 4Skvrna took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaKrenekS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.839.80.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 787 vs 453 / 89457.8%50.7%455 / 787 vs 453 / 894Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.73/Krenek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna—78100T. Krenek—1111123
WAug 31 · 11:40J. Skvrna—1212911113T. Krenek—101411722
WAug 27 · 17:13J. Skvrna—113128113T. Krenek—911101192
WAug 27 · 15:45J. Skvrna—11116123T. Krenek—8911101
WAug 25 · 11:40J. Skvrna—1111113T. Krenek—7950
LAug 16 · 15:45J. Skvrna—11916101T. Krenek—91118123
LAug 15 · 13:10J. Skvrna—1141211T. Krenek—81114113
LAug 15 · 10:40J. Skvrna—91151162T. Krenek—119115113
WAug 12 · 06:10J. Skvrna—118813113T. Krenek—811111172
WAug 7 · 13:08J. Skvrna—1111113T. Krenek—8770
J. Skvrna10
WSep 9 · 13:10J. Skvrna1.7312411213R. Sedlacek2.0010117191WSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111LSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133WSep 9 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.5710141511113L. Kantor2.25121217592WSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113WSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.61812101172T. Kindl2.201110122113LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113
T. Krenek10
LSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113WSep 8 · 11:10T. Kindl1.831291191T. Krenek1.83101113113WSep 8 · 10:10T. Krenek1.611211113D. Jr2.2010890WSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143LSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113LSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100LSep 8 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831211113T. Krenek1.8310670WSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 11:15E. Precek2.10571112113T. Krenek1.67111181092
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