TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13098996
Played Sep 8Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210411511811––
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 33–43 Jan Skvrna Tomas Krenek has won 33 of their 76 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Skvrna beat Krenek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-43 in 76
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 10 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1658 vs Skvrna 1653
Krenek
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 60% vs Skvrna 40%
Krenek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 50% vs Skvrna 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -1 · Skvrna +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.91 / Skvrna 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvrna)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13098996
Krenek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 125 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back44% 55 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back16% 7 of 45
Skvrna1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 226 of 385
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it74% 159 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek4wins
AwaySkvrna6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkvrna75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek2Skvrna8n = 10Skvrna took 8 of 10
S2Krenek7Skvrna3n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S3Krenek8Skvrna2n = 10Krenek took 8 of 10
S4Krenek3Skvrna5n = 8Skvrna took 5 of 8
S5Krenek1Skvrna4n = 5Skvrna took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekSkvrnaK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match42.641.6+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime453 / 895 vs 456 / 78850.6%57.9%453 / 895 vs 456 / 788Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaKrenek 1.91/Skvrna 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 11:40T. Krenek—811129102J. Skvrna—1171011123
WSep 6 · 11:45T. Krenek—1111123J. Skvrna—78100
LAug 31 · 11:40T. Krenek—101411722J. Skvrna—1212911113
LAug 27 · 17:13T. Krenek—911101192J. Skvrna—113128113
LAug 27 · 15:45T. Krenek—8911101J. Skvrna—11116123
LAug 25 · 11:40T. Krenek—7950J. Skvrna—1111113
WAug 16 · 15:45T. Krenek—91118123J. Skvrna—11916101
WAug 15 · 13:10T. Krenek—81114113J. Skvrna—1141211
WAug 15 · 10:40T. Krenek—119115113J. Skvrna—91151162
LAug 12 · 06:10T. Krenek—811111172J. Skvrna—118813113
T. Krenek10
LSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102WSep 8 · 11:10T. Kindl1.831291191T. Krenek1.83101113113WSep 8 · 10:10T. Krenek1.611211113D. Jr2.2010890WSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143LSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113LSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100LSep 8 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831211113T. Krenek1.8310670WSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 11:15E. Precek2.10571112113T. Krenek1.67111181092
J. Skvrna10
WSep 9 · 13:10J. Skvrna1.7312411213R. Sedlacek2.0010117191WSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111LSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133WSep 9 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.5710141511113L. Kantor2.25121217592WSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102WSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.61812101172T. Kindl2.201110122113LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113
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