TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101533
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1168111191311––
Radek Benes
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:49 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 80 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 52–35 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 35 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-35 in 87
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 17 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1654 vs Benes 1635
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 80% vs Benes 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 50% vs Benes 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna -1 · Benes +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.73 / Benes 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Skvrna)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13101533
Skvrna1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 229 of 389
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it74% 161 of 217
Benes2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 79 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna4wins
AwayBenes6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna100%3 of 3
AwayBenes85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S2Skvrna6Benes4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Skvrna4Benes3n = 7Skvrna took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaBenesS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.836.4−1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 791 vs 487 / 93157.9%52.3%458 / 791 vs 487 / 931Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.73/Benes 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 11:10J. Skvrna—711251R. Benes—11811113
LAug 25 · 13:09J. Skvrna—71111672R. Benes—115911113
LAug 25 · 10:40J. Skvrna—7870R. Benes—1111113
WAug 11 · 07:40J. Skvrna—1111113R. Benes—9440
LAug 6 · 13:23J. Skvrna—911681R. Benes—11411113
LAug 6 · 10:40J. Skvrna—714111192R. Benes—111658113
WJul 28 · 13:10J. Skvrna—11711113R. Benes—611991
WJul 28 · 10:40J. Skvrna—71111113R. Benes—116971
LJul 23 · 11:45J. Skvrna—7870R. Benes—1111113
WJul 22 · 06:40J. Skvrna—11114123R. Benes—7911101
J. Skvrna10
WSep 9 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.5710141511113L. Kantor2.25121217592WSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113WSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102WSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.61812101172T. Kindl2.201110122113LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113
R. Benes10
LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113WSep 9 · 11:10L. Kantor2.63691161R. Benes1.4411118113WSep 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.80411611113R. Sedlacek1.9111511892LSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 07:40R. Benes1.8012911113R. Sedlacek1.911011691WSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142LSep 9 · 05:40R. Benes1.611471112102L. Lasota2.201611610123LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123WSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl1.911111113R. Benes1.808950
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