TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101537
Played Sep 9Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118119911711114
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:49 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 92 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 10–8 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:49What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Benes
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1602 vs Pawlik 1547
Benes
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 20% vs Pawlik 80%
Pawlik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 20% vs Pawlik 50%
Pawlik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -2 · Pawlik +4
Pawlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.73 / Pawlik 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Benes)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13101537
Benes1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 186 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 123 of 167
Pawlik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 58 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayPawlik5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes71.4%5 of 7
AwayPawlik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes7Pawlik3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S2Benes3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S3Benes4Pawlik6n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S4Benes5Pawlik3n = 8Benes took 5 of 8
S5Benes2Pawlik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesPawlikB − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.444.9−2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime483 / 926 vs 226 / 45252.2%50%483 / 926 vs 226 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.73/Pawlik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 07:15R. Benes—11311163D. Pawlik—9116141
WAug 25 · 08:38R. Benes—1113113D. Pawlik—71190
LAug 25 · 08:10R. Benes—99100D. Pawlik—1111123
LAug 23 · 13:40R. Benes—82131182D. Pawlik—1111117113
LAug 10 · 09:08R. Benes—118881D. Pawlik—91111113
WAug 10 · 05:40R. Benes—11115153D. Pawlik—7911131
LJul 27 · 06:40R. Benes—167871D. Pawlik—141111113
LJul 23 · 07:15R. Benes—1171712102D. Pawlik—13111510123
WMay 27 · 10:40R. Benes—1161211113D. Pawlik—81114992
WApr 17 · 11:40R. Benes—1411126123D. Pawlik—1291411102
R. Benes10
LSep 9 · 05:40R. Benes1.611471112102L. Lasota2.201611610123LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123WSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl1.911111113R. Benes1.808950LSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152
D. Pawlik10
WSep 9 · 06:10R. Sedlacek1.918611101D. Pawlik1.8011119123WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113
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