TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101217
Played Sep 9Finished
Radek Sedlacek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8116111191012––
Dominik Pawlik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Sedlacek above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 78 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 61.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Radek Sedlacek 4–8 Dominik Pawlik Radek Sedlacek has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:46What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sedlacek 1566 vs Pawlik 1547
Sedlacek
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sedlacek 20% vs Pawlik 60%
Pawlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sedlacek 50% vs Pawlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sedlacek -2 · Pawlik +3
Pawlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sedlacek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSedlacek 1.91 / Pawlik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pawlik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13101217
Sedlacek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 34 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Pawlik1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 68 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 53 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSedlacek3wins
AwayPawlik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSedlacekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPawlik75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sedlacek2Pawlik8n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S2Sedlacek5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S3Sedlacek2Pawlik8n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S4Sedlacek4Pawlik3n = 7Sedlacek took 4 of 7
S5Sedlacek2Pawlik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSedlacekPawlikS − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.539.9−4.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSedlacekPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 295 vs 226 / 45246.4%50%137 / 295 vs 226 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikSedlacek 1.91/Pawlik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 06:10R. Sedlacek—8611101D. Pawlik—11119123
WJul 27 · 09:10R. Sedlacek—121168113D. Pawlik—109111192
LJul 27 · 05:40R. Sedlacek—8480D. Pawlik—1111113
WJun 3 · 09:45R. Sedlacek—611211113D. Pawlik—11411542
LMay 25 · 14:40R. Sedlacek—711791D. Pawlik—11711113
LMay 20 · 09:20R. Sedlacek—10570D. Pawlik—1211113
LMay 20 · 06:15R. Sedlacek—512211142D. Pawlik—1110114163
LMay 6 · 12:40R. Sedlacek—11941172D. Pawlik—411113113
WMay 6 · 11:40R. Sedlacek—81211123D. Pawlik—11107101
LMar 23 · 18:20R. Sedlacek—97100D. Pawlik—1111123
R. Sedlacek10
LSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113LSep 7 · 20:15J. Travnicek1.8011911113R. Sedlacek1.91611651WSep 7 · 19:15R. Sedlacek1.91121176123J. Krupnik1.801061111102LSep 7 · 17:45D. Skulina1.57131311143R. Sedlacek2.2511155121LSep 4 · 13:10R. Sedlacek1.83931151J. Krupnik1.8311119113WSep 4 · 11:40R. Sedlacek1.9112143113J. Krupnik1.8010121141WSep 4 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.801111113D. Jr1.918890WSep 4 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.44911911113J. Przybyla2.6311911972LSep 2 · 12:45B. Mrowetz1.67811118113R. Sedlacek2.1011681192WSep 2 · 11:45R. Sedlacek2.0091311123T. Krenek1.7311115101
D. Pawlik10
LSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113
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