TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101223
Played Sep 9Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
141671111612101012
Laurent Lasota
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:47 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeLaurent Lasota to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Laurent Lasota below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 109 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Laurent Lasota at 62.2%
109 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 2–1 Laurent Lasota Laurent Lasota has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:47What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1615 vs Lasota 1524
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 20% vs Lasota 60%
Lasota
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 30% vs Lasota 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Lasota +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.61 / Lasota 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Benes)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13101223
Benes1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 186 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 123 of 167
Lasota2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 45 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBenes2wins
AwayLasota1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBenes leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes1Lasota2n = 3Lasota took 2 of 3
S2Benes3Lasota0n = 3Benes took 3 of 3
S3Benes2Lasota1n = 3Benes took 2 of 3
S4Benes2Lasota1n = 3Benes took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBenesLasotaB − LBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.338.0+6.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesLasotaBasisWin rate · lifetime483 / 925 vs 138 / 27852.2%49.6%483 / 925 vs 138 / 278Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.61/Lasota 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lasota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WApr 9 · 05:45R. Benes—111112113L. Lasota—561451
WMar 22 · 18:10R. Benes—91111113L. Lasota—117881
LMar 22 · 14:40R. Benes—911124102L. Lasota—1171011113
R. Benes10
WSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123WSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl1.911111113R. Benes1.808950LSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152
L. Lasota10
WSep 7 · 09:10L. Lasota2.251113113B. Mrowetz1.5581190WSep 7 · 08:10L. Lasota1.5711711113J. Przybyla2.25311691LSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172LSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113LSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113LSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472
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