TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101510
Played Sep 9Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411115611118119
Radek Sedlacek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Radek Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 87 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 19–15 Radek Sedlacek Radek Sedlacek has won 15 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Benes beat Sedlacek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:50What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-15 in 34
Benes
Correct
gap of 4 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1612 vs Sedlacek 1512
Benes
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Sedlacek 0%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 40% vs Sedlacek 20%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Sedlacek -5
Sedlacek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sedlacek form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.80 / Sedlacek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13101510
Benes1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 186 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 123 of 167
Sedlacek1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 34 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes7wins
AwaySedlacek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%6 of 6
AwaySedlacek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes6Sedlacek4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Benes4Sedlacek6n = 10Sedlacek took 6 of 10
S3Benes5Sedlacek5n = 10split evenly
S4Benes7Sedlacek1n = 8Benes took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesSedlacekB − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.8+1.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 929 vs 137 / 29852.2%46%485 / 929 vs 137 / 298Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.80/Sedlacek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 07:40R. Benes—12911113R. Sedlacek—1011691
WSep 2 · 10:45R. Benes—11116113R. Sedlacek—871191
WAug 10 · 10:10R. Benes—41211113R. Sedlacek—1110691
LJul 27 · 08:10R. Benes—95110R. Sedlacek—1111133
WJun 24 · 13:15R. Benes—1161111123R. Sedlacek—611713102
LJun 24 · 10:10R. Benes—121261192R. Sedlacek—1410118113
WJun 24 · 08:40R. Benes—11411113R. Sedlacek—511791
LJun 24 · 08:10R. Benes—9680R. Sedlacek—1111113
WMay 25 · 09:40R. Benes—11813113R. Sedlacek—5111181
WApr 24 · 08:10R. Benes—111112113R. Sedlacek—781461
R. Benes10
LSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 07:40R. Benes1.8012911113R. Sedlacek1.911011691WSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142LSep 9 · 05:40R. Benes1.611471112102L. Lasota2.201611610123LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123WSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl1.911111113R. Benes1.808950LSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123
R. Sedlacek10
WSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133LSep 9 · 08:48L. Lasota1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.006830LSep 9 · 07:40R. Benes1.8012911113R. Sedlacek1.911011691LSep 9 · 07:10L. Lasota2.0011119113R. Sedlacek1.73691181LSep 9 · 06:10R. Sedlacek1.918611101D. Pawlik1.8011119123LSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113LSep 7 · 20:15J. Travnicek1.8011911113R. Sedlacek1.91611651WSep 7 · 19:15R. Sedlacek1.91121176123J. Krupnik1.801061111102LSep 7 · 17:45D. Skulina1.57131311143R. Sedlacek2.2511155121LSep 4 · 13:10R. Sedlacek1.83931151J. Krupnik1.8311119113
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