TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13104085
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12104111172119––
Radek Sedlacek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Radek Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 21-19
Point 95 set 4, 21-19 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 61.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 15–9 Radek Sedlacek Radek Sedlacek has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sedlacek beat Skvrna 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1651 vs Sedlacek 1536
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 80% vs Sedlacek 40%
Skvrna
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 50% vs Sedlacek 30%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +1 · Sedlacek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.73 / Sedlacek 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Skvrna)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13104085
Skvrna1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 229 of 389
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it74% 161 of 217
Sedlacek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 34 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna6wins
AwaySedlacek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna50%3 of 6
AwaySedlacek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna6Sedlacek4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S2Skvrna3Sedlacek7n = 10Sedlacek took 7 of 10
S3Skvrna6Sedlacek4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S4Skvrna6Sedlacek4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S5Skvrna2Sedlacek1n = 3Skvrna took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaSedlacekSkvrna − SedlacekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.639.6+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime459 / 792 vs 139 / 30158%46.2%459 / 792 vs 139 / 301Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.73/Sedlacek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna—111196112R. Sedlacek—941111133
WSep 1 · 09:45J. Skvrna—931111113R. Sedlacek—11117762
WJul 15 · 05:40J. Skvrna—861111113R. Sedlacek—11113782
LJun 26 · 11:45J. Skvrna—11514101R. Sedlacek—31116123
WJun 24 · 07:10J. Skvrna—111011113R. Sedlacek—612941
WApr 24 · 05:40J. Skvrna—11811163R. Sedlacek—7113141
LApr 22 · 09:40J. Skvrna—1136101R. Sedlacek—91111123
WApr 21 · 06:40J. Skvrna—61111113R. Sedlacek—116981
WApr 14 · 16:40J. Skvrna—13911113R. Sedlacek—1111791
LApr 14 · 14:40J. Skvrna—4118111R. Sedlacek—11811133
J. Skvrna10
WSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111LSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133WSep 9 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.5710141511113L. Kantor2.25121217592WSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113WSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102WSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.61812101172T. Kindl2.201110122113LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113
R. Sedlacek10
WSep 9 · 12:10R. Sedlacek1.3611117113L. Kantor3.00771171WSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133LSep 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.80411611113R. Sedlacek1.9111511892LSep 9 · 08:48L. Lasota1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.006830LSep 9 · 07:40R. Benes1.8012911113R. Sedlacek1.911011691LSep 9 · 07:10L. Lasota2.0011119113R. Sedlacek1.73691181LSep 9 · 06:10R. Sedlacek1.918611101D. Pawlik1.8011119123LSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113LSep 7 · 20:15J. Travnicek1.8011911113R. Sedlacek1.91611651WSep 7 · 19:15R. Sedlacek1.91121176123J. Krupnik1.801061111102
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