TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067327
Played Sep 3Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151141210––––
Tomas Kindl
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 53 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 8–8 Tomas Kindl Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1538 vs Kindl 1557
Kindl
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 80% vs Kindl 60%
Pawlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 60% vs Kindl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +3 · Kindl -2
Pawlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.80 / Kindl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pawlik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13067327
Pawlik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 71 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Kindl1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back26% 16 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayKindl5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik100%4 of 4
AwayKindl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Kindl6n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S2Pawlik5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S3Pawlik5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S4Pawlik4Kindl4n = 8split evenly
S5Pawlik2Kindl1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikKindlP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.339.30.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 439 vs 198 / 39450.1%50.3%220 / 439 vs 198 / 394Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.841.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.80/Kindl 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:40D. Pawlik—1111123T. Kindl—54100
LAug 21 · 08:43D. Pawlik—811961T. Kindl—11711113
LAug 21 · 07:45D. Pawlik—9111291T. Kindl—11914113
WAug 19 · 08:48D. Pawlik—7111111113T. Kindl—11413792
WAug 19 · 06:45D. Pawlik—11119153T. Kindl—8711131
WAug 17 · 11:40D. Pawlik—119114123T. Kindl—811411102
LAug 6 · 12:45D. Pawlik—89121152T. Kindl—1111104113
LAug 6 · 09:45D. Pawlik—6490T. Kindl—1111113
WAug 2 · 14:15D. Pawlik—111011143T. Kindl—8129121
LJun 5 · 07:15D. Pawlik—5411101T. Kindl—11117123
D. Pawlik10
LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112WSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113LSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060
T. Kindl10
WSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882LSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113WSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592LSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 06:15L. Lasota2.101011781T. Kindl1.6712711113WSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991WSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191
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