Dominik Stefek vs Patrik Sturma 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13044890

Played Aug 30Finished

Dominik Stefek

Home

1.57

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1186113111012––

Patrik Sturma

Away

2.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%

Graded at full time

Dominik Stefek to win

62.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Patrik Sturma below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 3-11

Set 4 · 10-12

Point 72 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 62.9%

72 points played in total.

H2H Dominik Stefek 10–5 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 5 of their 15 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 23:35

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Stefek

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

10-5 in 15

Stefek

Wrong

gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Stefek 1431 vs Sturma 1333

Stefek

Wrong

both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Stefek 40% vs Sturma 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Stefek 50% vs Sturma 30%

Stefek

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Stefek -1 · Sturma +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Stefek)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsStefek 1.57 / Sturma 2.25

Signal prob.63% / 37%

Edge (Stefek)+4.0pp

TT Cup · #13044890

Stefek1.57

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite50% won 16 of 32

Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8

Up 1–0, closes it72% 13 of 18

Sturma2.25

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog49% won 139 of 283

Down 0–1, comes back39% 55 of 140

Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeStefek7wins

AwaySturma3wins

6 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeStefek75%3 of 4

AwaySturma33.3%2 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Stefek4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10

S2Stefek4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10

S3Stefek7Sturma3n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10

S4Stefek7Sturma2n = 9Stefek took 7 of 9

S5Stefek4Sturma2n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricStefekSturmaStefek − SturmaBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.244.5+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricStefekSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 81 vs 394 / 81350.6%48.5%41 / 81 vs 394 / 813Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Stefek

Stefek 1.57/Sturma 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

62.9%

Stefek · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Sturma won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WAug 20 · 09:40D. Stefek—4121011113P. Sturma—111012982

LAug 19 · 13:15D. Stefek—1110101382P. Sturma—7121211113

WAug 19 · 10:10D. Stefek—1311711113P. Sturma—15611782

LAug 19 · 07:40D. Stefek—881181P. Sturma—11118113

WAug 15 · 16:50D. Stefek—9111411113P. Sturma—111312812

WAug 15 · 14:15D. Stefek—13213113P. Sturma—11111171

WAug 13 · 10:40D. Stefek—15211113P. Sturma—1311891

WAug 11 · 12:15D. Stefek—1111123P. Sturma—98100

LAug 11 · 06:15D. Stefek—761411102P. Sturma—1111128123

WAug 7 · 12:40D. Stefek—912115113P. Sturma—111061192

D. Stefek10

WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113 LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090 LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990 LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113 LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102 LSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123 LSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153 LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113 LAug 30 · 12:38D. Stefek2.501111641O. Vaclahovsky1.5013711113 WAug 30 · 11:40D. Stefek2.63951112113O. Vaclahovsky1.44111181042

P. Sturma10

LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113 WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692 WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122 WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962 LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113 WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851 WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113 WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113 LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930 WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113

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