TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13046582
Played Aug 30Finished
Miroslav Dolezal
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119911116116
Jan Oleksik
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Oleksik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslav Dolezal above · Jan Oleksik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jan Oleksik at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Dolezal 2–2 Jan Oleksik Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:46What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oleksik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1255 vs Oleksik 1243
Dolezal
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 80% vs Oleksik 40%
Dolezal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 60% vs Oleksik 30%
Dolezal
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +4 · Oleksik +2
Dolezal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oleksik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oleksik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 2.00 / Oleksik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oleksik)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13046582
Dolezal2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 11 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back24% 4 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Oleksik1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite35% won 8 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDolezal2wins
AwayOleksik2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezaln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOleksik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal1Oleksik3n = 4Oleksik took 3 of 4
S2Dolezal1Oleksik3n = 4Oleksik took 3 of 4
S3Dolezal0Oleksik4n = 4Oleksik took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricDolezalOleksikD − OBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match34.539.2−4.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalOleksikBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 36 vs 36 / 7444.4%48.7%16 / 36 vs 36 / 74Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OleksikDolezal 2.00/Oleksik 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oleksik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal—3380J. Oleksik—1111113
WAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal—811911113J. Oleksik—11911662
LAug 9 · 20:50M. Dolezal—5690J. Oleksik—1111113
WAug 9 · 20:10M. Dolezal—1271011143J. Oleksik—1011123122
M. Dolezal10
WSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113LSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113WSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113WAug 30 · 18:40B. Jonas1.73111011782M. Dolezal2.00812611113WAug 30 · 18:10R. Jancak1.67411451M. Dolezal2.1011611113WAug 23 · 20:49M. Dolezal2.251111113L. Jr1.578830WAug 23 · 20:15R. Jancak1.67111071192M. Dolezal2.10912111113LAug 23 · 19:15M. Dolezal3.004890J. Jnr1.361111113
J. Oleksik10
LSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113WSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152WSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113WAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113WAug 30 · 19:10J. Oleksik2.501111123R. Jancak1.5098100WAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113LAug 16 · 20:45L. Jr1.8381111113J. Oleksik1.83118991LAug 16 · 20:15J. Oleksik1.91811881D. Stefek1.8011911113LAug 16 · 18:45L. Jr1.91111197113J. Oleksik1.8089111172
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