TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12443887
Played Aug 16Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118119911711117
Jan Oleksik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Oleksik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Jan Oleksik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jan Oleksik at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 8–9 Jan Oleksik Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:22What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Oleksik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1375 vs Oleksik 1214
Jr
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Oleksik 20%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 70% vs Oleksik 30%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -3 · Oleksik -1
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oleksik form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.91 / Oleksik 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #12443887
Jr1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 72 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back43% 26 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 27
Oleksik1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite36% won 8 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr6wins
AwayOleksik4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr80%4 of 5
AwayOleksik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Oleksik5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr7Oleksik3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Jr6Oleksik4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr4Oleksik5n = 9Oleksik took 5 of 9
S5Jr3Oleksik3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrOleksikJ − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.341.1+1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrOleksikBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 391 vs 33 / 7053.5%47.1%209 / 391 vs 33 / 70Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.91/Oleksik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 20:45L. Jr—81111113J. Oleksik—118991
WAug 16 · 18:45L. Jr—111197113J. Oleksik—89111172
WAug 9 · 18:40L. Jr—11118113J. Oleksik—771181
WJul 5 · 18:15L. Jr—1111113J. Oleksik—7790
LJun 21 · 20:40L. Jr—11115782J. Oleksik—481111113
LJun 21 · 18:45L. Jr—91161142J. Oleksik—119116113
LJun 14 · 20:50L. Jr—151151J. Oleksik—11118113
WJun 14 · 20:15L. Jr—711119113J. Oleksik—11951152
WJun 7 · 21:05L. Jr—119119113J. Oleksik—71181152
LJun 7 · 17:40L. Jr—9111113102J. Oleksik—1113811123
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
J. Oleksik10
LSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113WSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152WSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113WAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113LAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal2.00811911113J. Oleksik1.7311911662WAug 30 · 19:10J. Oleksik2.501111123R. Jancak1.5098100WAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113LAug 16 · 20:45L. Jr1.8381111113J. Oleksik1.83118991LAug 16 · 20:15J. Oleksik1.91811881D. Stefek1.8011911113
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
J. Oleksik
Nothing scheduled
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