TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101027
Played Sep 9Finished
Josef Gruber
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511911117711––
Jan Simecek Jnr
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeJosef Gruber to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Gruber above · Jan Simecek Jnr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Josef Gruber at 67.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Josef Gruber 13–5 Jan Simecek Jnr Jan Simecek Jnr has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gruber
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-5 in 18
Gruber
Wrong
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gruber 1687 vs Jnr 1612
Gruber
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gruber 40% vs Jnr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gruber 60% vs Jnr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gruber -2 · Jnr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Gruber)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gruber form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGruber 1.40 / Jnr 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Gruber)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13101027
Gruber1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 50 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Jnr2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 38 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGruber7wins
AwayJnr3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderGruber leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGruber100%6 of 6
AwayJnr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gruber6Jnr4n = 10Gruber took 6 of 10
S2Gruber8Jnr2n = 10Gruber took 8 of 10
S3Gruber7Jnr3n = 10Gruber took 7 of 10
S4Gruber4Jnr2n = 6Gruber took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGruberJnrG − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.933.2+5.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGruberJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 207 vs 224 / 43257%51.9%118 / 207 vs 224 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberGruber 1.40/Jnr 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 31 · 20:58J. Gruber—51111113J. Jnr—116591
WJul 31 · 18:30J. Gruber—121211113J. Jnr—1014991
LJul 20 · 21:03J. Gruber—911651J. Jnr—11211113
LJul 20 · 18:15J. Gruber—81151592J. Jnr—1151113113
WJul 18 · 07:00J. Gruber—111011113J. Jnr—712891
WJul 14 · 17:30J. Gruber—1112113J. Jnr—71080
WJul 13 · 18:45J. Gruber—1111113J. Jnr—6340
LJun 30 · 17:30J. Gruber—71111121J. Jnr—11913143
WMay 19 · 18:45J. Gruber—1714113J. Jnr—151270
WApr 27 · 20:33J. Gruber—1111113J. Jnr—3960
J. Gruber10
LSep 9 · 17:15J. Gruber1.40117741S. Kalensky2.7561111113LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber1.539511101P. Maly2.3811118123WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113
J. Jnr10
WSep 9 · 17:45P. Orlowski1.919101111112J. Jnr1.80111295133WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.