TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100855
Played Sep 9Finished
Petr Orlowski
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91110121191151113
Jan Simecek Jnr
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Jan Simecek Jnr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 102 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 20–25 Jan Simecek Jnr Petr Orlowski has won 20 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-25 in 45
Jnr
Correct
gap of 5 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1679 vs Jnr 1612
Orlowski
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 60% vs Jnr 40%
Orlowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 60% vs Jnr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski -2 · Jnr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 1.91 / Jnr 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)-5.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13100855
Orlowski1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog55% won 48 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back38% 15 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back15% 3 of 20
Jnr1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 66 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it75% 45 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrlowski5wins
AwayJnr5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski42.9%3 of 7
AwayJnr33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski7Jnr3n = 10Orlowski took 7 of 10
S2Orlowski7Jnr3n = 10Orlowski took 7 of 10
S3Orlowski2Jnr8n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S4Orlowski4Jnr5n = 9Jnr took 5 of 9
S5Orlowski2Jnr3n = 5Jnr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrlowskiJnrO − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.145.0+0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 344 vs 224 / 43253.2%51.9%183 / 344 vs 224 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrOrlowski 1.91/Jnr 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski—11118113J. Jnr—671191
LAug 25 · 19:15P. Orlowski—111259112J. Jnr—7101111133
LAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski—11138792J. Jnr—9111111113
WAug 20 · 19:15P. Orlowski—117911113J. Jnr—91111582
WAug 17 · 19:15P. Orlowski—81111113J. Jnr—118791
LAug 13 · 20:18P. Orlowski—21116992J. Jnr—1991111113
WAug 13 · 19:15P. Orlowski—111188113J. Jnr—49111182
LJul 20 · 17:45P. Orlowski—86150J. Jnr—1111173
WJul 16 · 20:13P. Orlowski—201111113J. Jnr—225991
LJul 16 · 19:13P. Orlowski—1377101J. Jnr—111111123
P. Orlowski10
LSep 7 · 20:59D. Brichacek2.101111123P. Orlowski1.6775100LSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski1.8085110A. Pavlik1.911111133WSep 7 · 18:30P. Orlowski1.5011119113S. Kalensky2.50761171WSep 7 · 17:30P. Orlowski1.83111110113D. Brichacek1.83571261WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113
J. Jnr10
WSep 9 · 18:15J. Gruber1.40591171J. Jnr2.7511117113WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113
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