TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101205
Played Sep 9Finished
Josef Gruber
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116711711411––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeJosef Gruber to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Gruber above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 68 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Josef Gruber at 66.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Josef Gruber 2–0 Stepan Kalensky Stepan Kalensky has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:46What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gruber
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gruber 1703 vs Kalensky 1545
Gruber
Wrong
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gruber 60% vs Kalensky 40%
Gruber
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gruber 60% vs Kalensky 30%
Gruber
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gruber -1 · Kalensky -3
Kalensky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Gruber)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gruber form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGruber 1.40 / Kalensky 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Gruber)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13101205
Gruber1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 50 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Kalensky2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 48 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back26% 17 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGruber2wins
AwayKalensky0wins
Gruber leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGruberKalenskyG − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.531.0+8.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGruberKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 206 vs 288 / 52657.3%54.8%118 / 206 vs 288 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberGruber 1.40/Kalensky 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJun 30 · 21:03J. Gruber—1113123S. Kalensky—411100
WJun 30 · 20:00J. Gruber—11119123S. Kalensky—7911101
J. Gruber10
LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber1.539511101P. Maly2.3811118123WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113LAug 4 · 19:30J. Gruber1.3389111192O. Chadima3.25111192113
S. Kalensky10
LSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123LSep 7 · 20:00S. Kalensky3.50512741D. Brichacek1.28111011113LSep 7 · 18:30P. Orlowski1.5011119113S. Kalensky2.50761171WSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113
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