TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093999
Played Sep 8Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111712141311811
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Romaniak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 106 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ivan Romaniak at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 10–10 Nazar Kovalchuk Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:08What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1686 vs Kovalchuk 1575
Romaniak
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 40% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 30% vs Kovalchuk 50%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak -1 · Kovalchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Romaniak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 1.83 / Kovalchuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Romaniak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13093999
Romaniak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Kovalchuk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak6wins
AwayKovalchuk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRomaniak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKovalchuk50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak2Kovalchuk8n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S2Romaniak7Kovalchuk3n = 10Romaniak took 7 of 10
S3Romaniak6Kovalchuk4n = 10Romaniak took 6 of 10
S4Romaniak4Kovalchuk2n = 6Romaniak took 4 of 6
S5Romaniak2Kovalchuk1n = 3Romaniak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakKovalchukR − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.8−1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 511 vs 363 / 71145.2%51.1%231 / 511 vs 363 / 711Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RomaniakRomaniak 1.83/Kovalchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Romaniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 13:35I. Romaniak—9111013123N. Kovalchuk—1181211102
WJul 2 · 23:00I. Romaniak—1111113N. Kovalchuk—8860
LJun 14 · 23:00I. Romaniak—135131172N. Kovalchuk—1511119113
WJun 3 · 06:05I. Romaniak—1611113N. Kovalchuk—14690
WJun 2 · 15:05I. Romaniak—81111163N. Kovalchuk—1187141
LJun 1 · 22:00I. Romaniak—6860N. Kovalchuk—1111113
WMay 18 · 23:00I. Romaniak—21112113N. Kovalchuk—1181061
LMay 16 · 10:05I. Romaniak—411781N. Kovalchuk—11711113
WMay 14 · 22:00I. Romaniak—7111110113N. Kovalchuk—11991262
LMay 12 · 13:35I. Romaniak—3780N. Kovalchuk—1111113
I. Romaniak10
LSep 8 · 05:55I. Romaniak1.364990O. Hura3.001111113LSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581LSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113WSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113
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