TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084536
Played Sep 6Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12141113116411––
Valerii Vlasenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 82 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 64.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 25–17 Valerii Vlasenko Valerii Vlasenko has won 17 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-17 in 42
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 8 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1575 vs Vlasenko 1558
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Vlasenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Vlasenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +2 · Vlasenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.53 / Vlasenko 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084536
Kovalchuk1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 167 of 288
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it71% 114 of 161
Vlasenko2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk8wins
AwayVlasenko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%6 of 6
AwayVlasenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Vlasenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Vlasenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk7Vlasenko3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk5Vlasenko4n = 9Kovalchuk took 5 of 9
S5Kovalchuk3Vlasenko0n = 3Kovalchuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukVlasenkoK − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.437.4+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 711 vs 413 / 93551.1%44.2%363 / 711 vs 413 / 935Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.53/Vlasenko 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk—12111141V. Vlasenko—14136113
WAug 31 · 21:45N. Kovalchuk—11116113V. Vlasenko—871121
WAug 27 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk—113118113V. Vlasenko—51171172
WAug 26 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk—118912113V. Vlasenko—911111072
LAug 25 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk—14101181V. Vlasenko—16125113
WAug 18 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk—71112113V. Vlasenko—1191031
WAug 9 · 08:05N. Kovalchuk—116113113V. Vlasenko—91191142
WAug 7 · 24:15N. Kovalchuk—41111113V. Vlasenko—117681
WAug 6 · 02:15N. Kovalchuk—11118113V. Vlasenko—971141
WAug 2 · 08:05N. Kovalchuk—1111163V. Vlasenko—87140
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101
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