TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084138
Played Sep 6Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210116911118––
Oleh Napirko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:10 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 56.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 73–100 Oleh Napirko Valerii Vlasenko has won 73 of their 173 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:10What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Napirko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
73-100 in 173
Napirko
Wrong
gap of 27 in 173, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1513 vs Napirko 1534
Napirko
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 40% vs Napirko 20%
Vlasenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 50% vs Napirko 30%
Vlasenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -1 · Napirko -3
Napirko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.10 / Napirko 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Napirko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084138
Vlasenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 126 of 303
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Napirko1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 67 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it73% 55 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko7wins
AwayNapirko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko100%5 of 5
AwayNapirko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S2Vlasenko4Napirko6n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S3Vlasenko9Napirko1n = 10Vlasenko took 9 of 10
S4Vlasenko6Napirko2n = 8Vlasenko took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoNapirkoV − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.138.0+1.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 936 vs 439 / 87043.9%50.5%411 / 936 vs 439 / 870Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoVlasenko 2.10/Napirko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—6121115113O. Napirko—111461382
WAug 25 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—121013113O. Napirko—10121191
WAug 18 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—11811113O. Napirko—811791
LAug 14 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—51141152O. Napirko—118119113
WAug 9 · 05:35V. Vlasenko—1112133O. Napirko—710110
LAug 4 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—971191O. Napirko—11116113
LAug 2 · 05:35V. Vlasenko—541171O. Napirko—11118113
WJul 31 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—1111113O. Napirko—4990
WJul 29 · 02:15V. Vlasenko—61111113O. Napirko—119971
WJul 18 · 13:05V. Vlasenko—11911113O. Napirko—911961
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192WSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113
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