TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079333
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Kalenyk
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111145111012––
Valerii Vlasenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Vlasenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Kalenyk above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 69 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Valerii Vlasenko at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kalenyk 30–31 Valerii Vlasenko Serhii Kalenyk has won 30 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vlasenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-31 in 61
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalenyk 1455 vs Vlasenko 1458
Vlasenko
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalenyk 20% vs Vlasenko 60%
Vlasenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalenyk 30% vs Vlasenko 50%
Vlasenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalenyk -2 · Vlasenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vlasenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalenyk 1.91 / Vlasenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vlasenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13079333
Kalenyk1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 70 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Vlasenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite44% won 40 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it63% 26 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalenyk2wins
AwayVlasenko8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalenyk20%1 of 5
AwayVlasenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalenyk5Vlasenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kalenyk3Vlasenko7n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S3Kalenyk3Vlasenko7n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S4Kalenyk3Vlasenko6n = 9Vlasenko took 6 of 9
S5Kalenyk2Vlasenko3n = 5Vlasenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenykVlasenkoK − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.644.9−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenykVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 711 vs 409 / 93246.8%43.9%333 / 711 vs 409 / 932Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VlasenkoKalenyk 1.91/Vlasenko 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Vlasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 24:15S. Kalenyk—861171V. Vlasenko—11118113
WAug 16 · 08:05S. Kalenyk—1761311123V. Vlasenko—1911117102
LAug 15 · 18:05S. Kalenyk—1281181V. Vlasenko—14119103
LAug 14 · 01:15S. Kalenyk—11791172V. Vlasenko—211118113
LAug 12 · 21:45S. Kalenyk—111128142V. Vlasenko—581111163
LAug 11 · 21:45S. Kalenyk—41090V. Vlasenko—1112113
LAug 7 · 21:30S. Kalenyk—13381282V. Vlasenko—11111110113
LAug 5 · 22:45S. Kalenyk—11111181V. Vlasenko—13713113
WAug 3 · 21:45S. Kalenyk—121157113V. Vlasenko—102111162
LJul 30 · 20:15S. Kalenyk—116771V. Vlasenko—71111113
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551LSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152LSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101
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