TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079338
Played Sep 5Finished
Orest Hura
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1197111412911115
Valerii Vlasenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 100 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Orest Hura at 56.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 92–61 Valerii Vlasenko Valerii Vlasenko has won 61 of their 153 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
92-61 in 153
Hura
Correct
gap of 31 in 153, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1629 vs Vlasenko 1513
Hura
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 60% vs Vlasenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 60% vs Vlasenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura +2 · Vlasenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Hura) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 1.57 / Vlasenko 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Hura)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079338
Hura1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 88 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it98% 44 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it73% 60 of 82
Vlasenko2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 125 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back21% 30 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura6wins
AwayVlasenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHuran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVlasenko37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura2Vlasenko8n = 10Vlasenko took 8 of 10
S2Hura7Vlasenko3n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S3Hura6Vlasenko4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S4Hura6Vlasenko4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S5Hura2Vlasenko1n = 3Hura took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraVlasenkoH − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match43.640.9+2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 793 vs 411 / 93653.3%43.9%423 / 793 vs 411 / 936Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HuraHura 1.57/Vlasenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 03:00O. Hura—71113101V. Vlasenko—11815123
WSep 3 · 02:15O. Hura—11119113V. Vlasenko—991181
WAug 30 · 07:05O. Hura—1411118113V. Vlasenko—16951142
WAug 29 · 02:00O. Hura—81111113V. Vlasenko—119581
LAug 26 · 02:15O. Hura—791181V. Vlasenko—11119113
LAug 22 · 02:00O. Hura—11791182V. Vlasenko—811117113
LAug 16 · 05:35O. Hura—9117101V. Vlasenko—11711123
WAug 15 · 17:05O. Hura—41111123V. Vlasenko—1184101
WAug 13 · 01:45O. Hura—71111113V. Vlasenko—116961
WAug 12 · 01:45O. Hura—8201111113V. Vlasenko—11227392
O. Hura10
WSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113LSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113WSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101LSep 5 · 01:30O. Hura1.91611171S. Kalenyk1.8011911113WSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113LSep 4 · 21:30M. Smyrnov2.0011911113O. Hura1.73611691WSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 02:15O. Hura1.6711119113V. Vlasenko2.10991181
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153WSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123WSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101LSep 3 · 02:15O. Hura1.6711119113V. Vlasenko2.10991181
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