TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079352
Played Sep 5Finished
Orest Hura
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111181113711––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 79 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Orest Hura at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 17–28 Serhii Kalenyk Orest Hura has won 17 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kalenyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-28 in 45
Kalenyk
Correct
gap of 11 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1626 vs Kalenyk 1427
Hura
Wrong
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 60% vs Kalenyk 20%
Hura
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 60% vs Kalenyk 20%
Hura
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura +3 · Kalenyk -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hura)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 2.00 / Kalenyk 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hura)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13079352
Hura2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 39 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back32% 16 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back23% 6 of 26
Kalenyk1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 114 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it72% 86 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura5wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHura40%2 of 5
AwayKalenyk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Hura6Kalenyk4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S3Hura6Kalenyk4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S4Hura4Kalenyk5n = 9Kalenyk took 5 of 9
S5Hura2Kalenyk3n = 5Kalenyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraKalenykH − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.742.3−1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 791 vs 333 / 71353.4%46.7%422 / 791 vs 333 / 713Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HuraHura 2.00/Kalenyk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 20:15O. Hura—1111113S. Kalenyk—4880
WSep 2 · 24:15O. Hura—91111123S. Kalenyk—1187101
LAug 19 · 02:45O. Hura—761351S. Kalenyk—111111113
LAug 16 · 11:35O. Hura—125561S. Kalenyk—101111113
LAug 15 · 15:05O. Hura—21612562S. Kalenyk—11141011113
LAug 12 · 20:15O. Hura—1111101172S. Kalenyk—913128113
WAug 11 · 20:15O. Hura—91111113S. Kalenyk—118951
WAug 7 · 20:30O. Hura—111187153S. Kalenyk—391111132
WJul 29 · 21:45O. Hura—411117113S. Kalenyk—11871142
LJul 25 · 24:00O. Hura—11941182S. Kalenyk—911117113
O. Hura10
WSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113WSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101LSep 5 · 01:30O. Hura1.91611171S. Kalenyk1.8011911113WSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113LSep 4 · 21:30M. Smyrnov2.0011911113O. Hura1.73611691WSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 02:15O. Hura1.6711119113V. Vlasenko2.10991181
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551WSep 5 · 01:30O. Hura1.91611171S. Kalenyk1.8011911113
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