TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079225
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Kalenyk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151210118––––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Kalenyk above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 64.8%
57 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kalenyk 29–56 Mykyta Smyrnov Serhii Kalenyk has won 29 of their 85 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-56 in 85
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 27 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalenyk 1460 vs Smyrnov 1549
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalenyk 20% vs Smyrnov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalenyk 20% vs Smyrnov 50%
Smyrnov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalenyk +1 · Smyrnov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalenyk 2.50 / Smyrnov 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Smyrnov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079225
Kalenyk2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 70 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Smyrnov1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 127 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it88% 56 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it74% 92 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalenyk5wins
AwaySmyrnov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalenyk80%4 of 5
AwaySmyrnov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalenyk5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kalenyk7Smyrnov3n = 10Kalenyk took 7 of 10
S3Kalenyk5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S4Kalenyk1Smyrnov3n = 4Smyrnov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenykSmyrnovK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.931.8+3.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenykSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 715 vs 391 / 79546.9%49.2%335 / 715 vs 391 / 795Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovKalenyk 2.50/Smyrnov 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk—1112113M. Smyrnov—51080
LSep 4 · 20:00S. Kalenyk—116971M. Smyrnov—91111113
LSep 3 · 02:45S. Kalenyk—811111082M. Smyrnov—113812113
LSep 2 · 01:45S. Kalenyk—8660M. Smyrnov—1111113
WAug 18 · 20:15S. Kalenyk—1112113M. Smyrnov—51060
LAug 14 · 03:15S. Kalenyk—911881M. Smyrnov—11711113
WAug 13 · 02:15S. Kalenyk—1113113M. Smyrnov—61150
WAug 12 · 02:15S. Kalenyk—1111113M. Smyrnov—3430
LAug 5 · 21:15S. Kalenyk—6660M. Smyrnov—1111113
WAug 4 · 03:15S. Kalenyk—9111512113M. Smyrnov—113171082
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551LSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123
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