TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084404
Played Sep 7Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1517811611––––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeIvan Romaniak to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 68 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Ivan Romaniak at 72.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 8–4 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Romaniak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Romaniak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1716 vs Smyrnov 1533
Romaniak
Wrong
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 20% vs Smyrnov 0%
Romaniak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 40% vs Smyrnov 20%
Romaniak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak -4 · Smyrnov -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Romaniak) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 1.30 / Smyrnov 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Romaniak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084404
Romaniak1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 58 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it87% 45 of 52
Smyrnov3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 118 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak7wins
AwaySmyrnov3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRomaniak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak75%6 of 8
AwaySmyrnovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak8Smyrnov2n = 10Romaniak took 8 of 10
S2Romaniak7Smyrnov3n = 10Romaniak took 7 of 10
S3Romaniak5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S4Romaniak3Smyrnov2n = 5Romaniak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakSmyrnovR − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.232.7+5.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 504 vs 391 / 79845.2%49%228 / 504 vs 391 / 798Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RomaniakRomaniak 1.30/Smyrnov 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.3%
Romaniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 3 · 08:05I. Romaniak—1111113M. Smyrnov—7240
WJun 2 · 14:05I. Romaniak—1112113M. Smyrnov—91060
WMay 26 · 12:35I. Romaniak—13159113M. Smyrnov—11131141
WMay 11 · 22:00I. Romaniak—1111113M. Smyrnov—7790
LMay 1 · 01:25I. Romaniak—11815862M. Smyrnov—6111311113
WApr 12 · 23:45I. Romaniak—911911113M. Smyrnov—11911592
LMar 16 · 04:15I. Romaniak—1196121M. Smyrnov—41111143
WFeb 10 · 15:05I. Romaniak—11116113M. Smyrnov—591161
LFeb 10 · 04:00I. Romaniak—10590M. Smyrnov—1211113
WFeb 8 · 09:05I. Romaniak—1112113M. Smyrnov—81070
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113LAug 31 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635580LAug 31 · 17:25D. Shcherbak1.731111113I. Romaniak2.007870
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123
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