TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084099
Played Sep 7Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012116511––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:58 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 75 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 54.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 40–33 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 33 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-33 in 73
Shcherbak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1788 vs Romaniak 1695
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 80% vs Romaniak 0%
Shcherbak
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 80% vs Romaniak 30%
Shcherbak
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +3 · Romaniak -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Shcherbak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.73 / Romaniak 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Shcherbak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084099
Shcherbak1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite60% won 157 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it93% 90 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it77% 123 of 160
Romaniak2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 124 of 303
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak6wins
AwayRomaniak4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak80%4 of 5
AwayRomaniak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S2Shcherbak9Romaniak1n = 10Shcherbak took 9 of 10
S3Shcherbak5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S4Shcherbak2Romaniak4n = 6Romaniak took 4 of 6
S5Shcherbak3Romaniak3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakRomaniakS − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.739.8−0.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 619 vs 228 / 50552%45.2%322 / 619 vs 228 / 505Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.73/Romaniak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak—911185113I. Romaniak—118161172
WAug 31 · 17:25D. Shcherbak—1111113I. Romaniak—7870
LAug 25 · 05:55D. Shcherbak—11117272I. Romaniak—881111113
WAug 24 · 13:25D. Shcherbak—1111113I. Romaniak—6480
LAug 21 · 17:35D. Shcherbak—71141162I. Romaniak—119119103
WAug 21 · 02:30D. Shcherbak—1111123I. Romaniak—77100
LAug 18 · 06:05D. Shcherbak—9860I. Romaniak—1111113
WAug 17 · 12:05D. Shcherbak—2111012113I. Romaniak—118121062
WAug 17 · 03:00D. Shcherbak—111186113I. Romaniak—78111192
LAug 11 · 10:05D. Shcherbak—4111114102I. Romaniak—118916123
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891WSep 4 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk2.38102120D. Shcherbak1.531211143
I. Romaniak10
LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113LAug 31 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635580LAug 31 · 17:25D. Shcherbak1.731111113I. Romaniak2.007870
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