TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079261
Played Sep 5Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611117118119––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 38–40 Denys Shcherbak Ivan Kozachuk has won 38 of their 78 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-40 in 78
Shcherbak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1733 vs Shcherbak 1723
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 40% vs Shcherbak 20%
Kozachuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 40% vs Shcherbak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -1 · Shcherbak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.80 / Shcherbak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13079261
Kozachuk1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 132 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 124
Shcherbak1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 128 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back19% 30 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk5wins
AwayShcherbak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayShcherbak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk7Shcherbak3n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S2Kozachuk6Shcherbak4n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10
S3Kozachuk5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S4Kozachuk1Shcherbak3n = 4Shcherbak took 3 of 4
S5Kozachuk1Shcherbak2n = 3Shcherbak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukShcherbakK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.733.6+1.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 1105 vs 315 / 61049.4%51.6%546 / 1105 vs 315 / 610Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.80/Shcherbak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 09:58I. Kozachuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—8350
LSep 1 · 07:25I. Kozachuk—4970D. Shcherbak—1111113
WAug 31 · 12:25I. Kozachuk—168114113D. Shcherbak—141181182
WAug 25 · 04:55I. Kozachuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—9940
WAug 24 · 17:55I. Kozachuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—9630
LAug 18 · 10:35I. Kozachuk—6390D. Shcherbak—1111113
LAug 17 · 16:05I. Kozachuk—11118782D. Shcherbak—661111113
LAug 16 · 20:30I. Kozachuk—11871582D. Shcherbak—6111113113
WAug 14 · 01:00I. Kozachuk—1111153D. Shcherbak—48130
LAug 11 · 08:35I. Kozachuk—711831D. Shcherbak—11711113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101LSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113WSep 4 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk2.38102120D. Shcherbak1.531211143
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