TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079185
Played Sep 5Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11811131161210––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 82 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 1–1 Ruslan Lazebnyi Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1761 vs Lazebnyi 1558
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 203 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 40% vs Lazebnyi 60%
Lazebnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 50% vs Lazebnyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +1 · Lazebnyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kozachuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.67 / Lazebnyi 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079185
Kozachuk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 133 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it92% 68 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 124
Lazebnyi2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 17 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKozachuk1wins
AwayLazebnyi1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKozachukLazebnyiK − LBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.040.5−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 1100 vs 52 / 10450%50%550 / 1100 vs 52 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.67/Lazebnyi 2.10
Hit
What we said
58.6%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk—111111123R. Lazebnyi—8136101
LSep 4 · 24:00I. Kozachuk—7611111R. Lazebnyi—11119133
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113LSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 01:30D. Shcherbak1.3012790R. Lazebnyi3.401411113
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