TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084397
Played Sep 7Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191151012711118
Ivan Kozachuk
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Rak at 61.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 82–59 Ivan Kozachuk Ivan Kozachuk has won 59 of their 141 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
82-59 in 141
Rak
Correct
gap of 23 in 141, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1795 vs Kozachuk 1772
Rak
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Kozachuk 80%
Kozachuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 60% vs Kozachuk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -2 · Kozachuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.53 / Kozachuk 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Rak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084397
Rak1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 264 of 416
Up 2–0, closes it92% 129 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it81% 185 of 229
Kozachuk2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 101 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak7wins
AwayKozachuk3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak66.7%4 of 6
AwayKozachuk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak6Kozachuk4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Rak6Kozachuk4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Rak6Kozachuk4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Rak7Kozachuk2n = 9Rak took 7 of 9
S5Rak1Kozachuk2n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakKozachukR − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.435.6+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 900 vs 550 / 109954.9%50.1%494 / 900 vs 550 / 1099Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.53/Kozachuk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak—91111113I. Kozachuk—117361
WSep 1 · 05:55S. Rak—11117113I. Kozachuk—881151
LAug 31 · 16:55S. Rak—811981I. Kozachuk—11411113
WAug 25 · 09:25S. Rak—1111113I. Kozachuk—7670
WAug 24 · 16:55S. Rak—12911113I. Kozachuk—1011481
LAug 18 · 09:35S. Rak—11931162I. Kozachuk—411117113
WAug 17 · 17:05S. Rak—61111113I. Kozachuk—117841
WAug 17 · 02:00S. Rak—11113133I. Kozachuk—8611111
WAug 14 · 02:00S. Rak—7101111113I. Kozachuk—11129792
LAug 11 · 09:35S. Rak—112115142I. Kozachuk—511611163
S. Rak10
LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091WSep 1 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.44811781S. Rak2.6311711113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361
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