TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084657
Played Sep 7Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611118117811117
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 69.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 5–3 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Kozachuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1787 vs Smyrnov 1533
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 254 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 80% vs Smyrnov 0%
Kozachuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 70% vs Smyrnov 20%
Kozachuk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +4 · Smyrnov -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.40 / Smyrnov 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Kozachuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084657
Kozachuk1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 134 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it81% 101 of 125
Smyrnov2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 118 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKozachuk5wins
AwaySmyrnov3wins
5 of 8 to a deciderKozachuk leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk100%3 of 3
AwaySmyrnov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk3Smyrnov5n = 8Smyrnov took 5 of 8
S2Kozachuk7Smyrnov1n = 8Kozachuk took 7 of 8
S3Kozachuk4Smyrnov4n = 8split evenly
S4Kozachuk3Smyrnov4n = 7Smyrnov took 4 of 7
S5Kozachuk3Smyrnov2n = 5Kozachuk took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKozachukSmyrnovK − SBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match43.038.6+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 1098 vs 391 / 79850.1%49%550 / 1098 vs 391 / 798Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.40/Smyrnov 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk—611118113M. Smyrnov—11871172
WJun 3 · 07:05I. Kozachuk—11111111113M. Smyrnov—41313542
WMay 4 · 01:15I. Kozachuk—1111711113M. Smyrnov—73111342
LApr 30 · 20:15I. Kozachuk—511101142M. Smyrnov—118128113
WMar 16 · 02:15I. Kozachuk—1211113M. Smyrnov—10660
WFeb 23 · 15:55I. Kozachuk—81111113M. Smyrnov—119641
LJan 6 · 05:55I. Kozachuk—711119122M. Smyrnov—114611143
LJan 5 · 16:55I. Kozachuk—811421M. Smyrnov—11711113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123
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