TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084070
Played Sep 6Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116116––––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:59 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 77.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 12–4 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:59What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1753 vs Smyrnov 1544
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 80% vs Smyrnov 20%
Shcherbak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 50% vs Smyrnov 30%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -1 · Smyrnov -4
Smyrnov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.28 / Smyrnov 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Shcherbak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084070
Shcherbak1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 157 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it93% 90 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it77% 123 of 160
Smyrnov3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 118 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak8wins
AwaySmyrnov2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak87.5%7 of 8
AwaySmyrnovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak8Smyrnov2n = 10Shcherbak took 8 of 10
S2Shcherbak7Smyrnov3n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S3Shcherbak8Smyrnov2n = 10Shcherbak took 8 of 10
S4Shcherbak3Smyrnov2n = 5Shcherbak took 3 of 5
S5Shcherbak2Smyrnov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakSmyrnovShcherbak − SmyrnovBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.633.6+7.0per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 616 vs 391 / 79651.8%49.1%319 / 616 vs 391 / 796Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.28/Smyrnov 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 3 · 11:05D. Shcherbak—11711133M. Smyrnov—8119111
WJun 2 · 17:35D. Shcherbak—1112113M. Smyrnov—61050
WMay 26 · 16:05D. Shcherbak—1111113M. Smyrnov—7740
WMay 17 · 20:45D. Shcherbak—1111113M. Smyrnov—5570
WMay 12 · 01:30D. Shcherbak—1111123M. Smyrnov—99100
WMay 3 · 22:15D. Shcherbak—911134113M. Smyrnov—117111162
WApr 30 · 02:45D. Shcherbak—1111113M. Smyrnov—4470
LApr 28 · 23:15D. Shcherbak—7111111112M. Smyrnov—118813133
WApr 12 · 20:45D. Shcherbak—1191112113M. Smyrnov—511131082
LApr 2 · 03:15D. Shcherbak—11641492M. Smyrnov—7111112113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891WSep 4 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk2.38102120D. Shcherbak1.531211143
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123
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